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icon for Iran-Führer Ende 2026?
Welt·Mittlerer Osten

Iran-Führer Ende 2026?

icon for Iran-Führer Ende 2026?
Welt·Mittlerer Osten

Iran-Führer Ende 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 84.7%

Kein Staatschef 4.5%

Reza Pahlavi 2.9%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 1.3%

Polymarket

$39,365,149 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 84.7%

Kein Staatschef 4.5%

Reza Pahlavi 2.9%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 1.3%

Polymarket

$39,365,149 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$6,474,161 Vol.

85%

Kein Staatschef

$1,161,265 Vol.

4%

Reza Pahlavi

$679,953 Vol.

3%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$1,131,275 Vol.

1%

Alireza Arafi

$2,317,306 Vol.

1%

Hassan Rouhani

$948,210 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$1,021,854 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$780,494 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$921,860 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,434,950 Vol.

<1%

Abbas Araghchi

$834,760 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$441,774 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$546,677 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$3,694,989 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$243,571 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$3,156,951 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$406,291 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$151,258 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$227,643 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$845,417 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$440,839 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$3,359,291 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$397,419 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$5,214,448 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$293,721 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$352,114 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$863,867 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$205,808 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$266,607 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$313,518 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 84.7% implied probability in the Iran leader market for end of 2026 because he was elected Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following the assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, amid U.S.-Israeli strikes. Traders view his position as entrenched due to backing from the IRGC, clerical networks, and a temporary leadership council that transitioned authority to him for regime continuity during active conflict. Recent statements from President Masoud Pezeshkian in August 2026 affirmed his full health and decision-making role despite limited public appearances tied to security and recovery from injuries. Alternative candidates such as Alireza Arafi or Reza Pahlavi register below 3% amid the absence of viable succession mechanisms or regime shifts before year-end.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$39,365,149
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 84.7% implied probability in the Iran leader market for end of 2026 because he was elected Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following the assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, amid U.S.-Israeli strikes. Traders view his position as entrenched due to backing from the IRGC, clerical networks, and a temporary leadership council that transitioned authority to him for regime continuity during active conflict. Recent statements from President Masoud Pezeshkian in August 2026 affirmed his full health and decision-making role despite limited public appearances tied to security and recovery from injuries. Alternative candidates such as Alireza Arafi or Reza Pahlavi register below 3% amid the absence of viable succession mechanisms or regime shifts before year-end.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$39,365,149
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

Verwandte

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3%
Ja
icon for Wird Delcy Rodríguez Ende 2026 die faktische Anführerin Venezuelas sein?

Wird Delcy Rodríguez Ende 2026 die faktische Anführerin Venezuelas sein?

94%
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7%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 32 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Mojtaba Khamenei" mit 85%, gefolgt von „Kein Staatschef" mit 4%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 85¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 85% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $39.4 million generiert, seit der Markt am Feb 28, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 32 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" ist „Mojtaba Khamenei" mit 85%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 85% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Kein Staatschef" mit 4%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.