Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 damaged enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of Iran's estimated 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium under rubble and halting active enrichment. IAEA inspectors have faced restricted access since mid-2025, preventing verification of material status or any covert recovery, while a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum on inspections and down-blending remains stalled amid compliance disputes. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran's timeline to a weapon remains roughly nine to twelve months or longer, reinforced by sustained sanctions, export controls, and the absence of confirmed weaponization activity. Trader consensus at 95% for no acquisition by end-2026 reflects these technical and verification barriers. Concealed extraction of stockpiles or accelerated secret weaponization amid ongoing conflicts could still alter the outlook before the resolution date.