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icon for Entscheidung der Bank of Mexico im November?
Economy·Mexiko

Entscheidung der Bank of Mexico im November?

icon for Entscheidung der Bank of Mexico im November?
Economy·Mexiko

Entscheidung der Bank of Mexico im November?

Sep. 24

Nov. 5

Sep. 24

Nov. 5

Keine Änderung 91%

Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 5.0%

Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 3.1%

Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%

Polymarket

$19,201 Vol.

Keine Änderung 91%

Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 5.0%

Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 3.1%

Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%

Polymarket

$19,201 Vol.

Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte

$1,114 Vol.

<1%

Senkung um 25 Basispunkte

$1,858 Vol.

3%

Keine Änderung

$13,466 Vol.

91%

Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte

$1,834 Vol.

5%

Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte

$930 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Banxico’s policy rate at 6.50% faces overwhelming trader consensus for no change at the November 2026 meeting, driven by headline inflation easing to 3.12% in July and 3.26% in August while core measures remain sticky near 3.9%. The central bank has signaled an extended pause after ending its easing cycle earlier in 2026, citing upside risks from services prices, potential trade disruptions, and the need to anchor expectations amid a still-restrictive global backdrop. Recent data revisions and analyst surveys reinforce that inflation convergence to the 3% target is projected only by late 2027. A sharper-than-expected drop in core readings or pronounced growth weakness could reopen cut probabilities, though current monetary policy guidance and the narrow rate differential with the Fed limit near-term scope for adjustment.

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volumen
$19,201
Enddatum
5. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Banxico’s policy rate at 6.50% faces overwhelming trader consensus for no change at the November 2026 meeting, driven by headline inflation easing to 3.12% in July and 3.26% in August while core measures remain sticky near 3.9%. The central bank has signaled an extended pause after ending its easing cycle earlier in 2026, citing upside risks from services prices, potential trade disruptions, and the need to anchor expectations amid a still-restrictive global backdrop. Recent data revisions and analyst surveys reinforce that inflation convergence to the 3% target is projected only by late 2027. A sharper-than-expected drop in core readings or pronounced growth weakness could reopen cut probabilities, though current monetary policy guidance and the narrow rate differential with the Fed limit near-term scope for adjustment.

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volumen
$19,201
Enddatum
5. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

Verwandte

icon for Keine Änderung der Zinssätze der Bank von Mexiko nach der Sitzung im September 2026?

Keine Änderung der Zinssätze der Bank von Mexiko nach der Sitzung im September 2026?

97%
Ja
icon for Wird die Bank von Brasilien das Ziel für den Selic-Satz bei der November-Sitzung um 25 Basispunkte senken?

Wird die Bank von Brasilien das Ziel für den Selic-Satz bei der November-Sitzung um 25 Basispunkte senken?

63%
Ja
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Wird die Zentralbank von Kolumbien bei der Sitzung im Oktober keine Änderung des Leitzinses vornehmen?

77%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Entscheidung der Bank of Mexico im November?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Keine Änderung" mit 91%, gefolgt von „Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte" mit 5%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 91¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 91% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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