Recent August CPI data, with core prices rising 0.3% month-over-month versus 0.2% consensus expectations, has shifted trader focus toward a firmer Core PCE outcome. Analysts at major banks revised August Core PCE forecasts upward to the 0.24–0.30% range after incorporating stronger PCE-relevant components from the PPI and the CPI print, which showed energy-driven headline acceleration alongside persistent services inflation. July’s 0.2% Core PCE reading provided a baseline, but the September 11 CPI release introduced momentum for a potential 0.3% print ahead of the September 30 BEA release. Market-implied odds reflect this recalibration, with the 0.3% outcome commanding the largest share as participants weigh the sticky underlying trend against base effects and potential BEA methodological adjustments.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert0.3% 69%
0.2% 29%
0.1% 2.5%
≤-0.1% <1%
$16,740 Vol.
$16,740 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
≤-0.1%
<1%
0.0%
<1%
0.1%
2%
0.2%
29%
0.3%
69%
0.4%
<1%
0.5%+
<1%
0.3% 69%
0.2% 29%
0.1% 2.5%
≤-0.1% <1%
$16,740 Vol.
$16,740 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
≤-0.1%
$740 Vol.
<1%
0.0%
$783 Vol.
<1%
0.1%
$959 Vol.
2%
0.2%
$6,440 Vol.
29%
0.3%
$6,456 Vol.
69%
0.4%
$504 Vol.
<1%
0.5%+
$856 Vol.
<1%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August CPI data, with core prices rising 0.3% month-over-month versus 0.2% consensus expectations, has shifted trader focus toward a firmer Core PCE outcome. Analysts at major banks revised August Core PCE forecasts upward to the 0.24–0.30% range after incorporating stronger PCE-relevant components from the PPI and the CPI print, which showed energy-driven headline acceleration alongside persistent services inflation. July’s 0.2% Core PCE reading provided a baseline, but the September 11 CPI release introduced momentum for a potential 0.3% print ahead of the September 30 BEA release. Market-implied odds reflect this recalibration, with the 0.3% outcome commanding the largest share as participants weigh the sticky underlying trend against base effects and potential BEA methodological adjustments.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volumen
$16,740Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47de9d...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August CPI data, with core prices rising 0.3% month-over-month versus 0.2% consensus expectations, has shifted trader focus toward a firmer Core PCE outcome. Analysts at major banks revised August Core PCE forecasts upward to the 0.24–0.30% range after incorporating stronger PCE-relevant components from the PPI and the CPI print, which showed energy-driven headline acceleration alongside persistent services inflation. July’s 0.2% Core PCE reading provided a baseline, but the September 11 CPI release introduced momentum for a potential 0.3% print ahead of the September 30 BEA release. Market-implied odds reflect this recalibration, with the 0.3% outcome commanding the largest share as participants weigh the sticky underlying trend against base effects and potential BEA methodological adjustments.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volumen
$16,740Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47de9d...Recent August CPI data, with core prices rising 0.3% month-over-month versus 0.2% consensus expectations, has shifted trader focus toward a firmer Core PCE outcome. Analysts at major banks revised August Core PCE forecasts upward to the 0.24–0.30% range after incorporating stronger PCE-relevant components from the PPI and the CPI print, which showed energy-driven headline acceleration alongside persistent services inflation. July’s 0.2% Core PCE reading provided a baseline, but the September 11 CPI release introduced momentum for a potential 0.3% print ahead of the September 30 BEA release. Market-implied odds reflect this recalibration, with the 0.3% outcome commanding the largest share as participants weigh the sticky underlying trend against base effects and potential BEA methodological adjustments.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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