Recent U.S. trade data through mid-2026 show the goods and services deficit running below 2025 levels on a year-to-date basis, with monthly figures fluctuating between roughly $70 billion and $119 billion amid tariff adjustments and shifting import patterns. Trader positioning around an $800–900 billion annual outcome reflects the cumulative impact of reciprocal tariffs implemented in 2025, which have curbed imports from key partners while prompting sourcing shifts to ASEAN nations and continued strength in services exports. Offsetting pressures include robust AI-related capital goods imports, particularly semiconductors and equipment from Taiwan and Mexico, alongside commodity export volatility tied to energy prices. Market-implied odds incorporate the latest BEA and Census releases, with further monthly reports and any additional trade policy developments serving as near-term catalysts through year-end.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড$24,712 Vol.
$24,712 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
3%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
10%
700–800B
28%
800–900B
39%
900B–1T
14%
1T–1.1T
4%
1.1T+
3%
$24,712 Vol.
$24,712 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
$16,854 Vol.
3%
500–600B
$454 Vol.
5%
600–700B
$543 Vol.
10%
700–800B
$720 Vol.
28%
800–900B
$1,845 Vol.
39%
900B–1T
$1,509 Vol.
14%
1T–1.1T
$1,572 Vol.
4%
1.1T+
$1,215 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data through mid-2026 show the goods and services deficit running below 2025 levels on a year-to-date basis, with monthly figures fluctuating between roughly $70 billion and $119 billion amid tariff adjustments and shifting import patterns. Trader positioning around an $800–900 billion annual outcome reflects the cumulative impact of reciprocal tariffs implemented in 2025, which have curbed imports from key partners while prompting sourcing shifts to ASEAN nations and continued strength in services exports. Offsetting pressures include robust AI-related capital goods imports, particularly semiconductors and equipment from Taiwan and Mexico, alongside commodity export volatility tied to energy prices. Market-implied odds incorporate the latest BEA and Census releases, with further monthly reports and any additional trade policy developments serving as near-term catalysts through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
ভলিউম
$24,712শেষ তারিখ
Feb 28, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data through mid-2026 show the goods and services deficit running below 2025 levels on a year-to-date basis, with monthly figures fluctuating between roughly $70 billion and $119 billion amid tariff adjustments and shifting import patterns. Trader positioning around an $800–900 billion annual outcome reflects the cumulative impact of reciprocal tariffs implemented in 2025, which have curbed imports from key partners while prompting sourcing shifts to ASEAN nations and continued strength in services exports. Offsetting pressures include robust AI-related capital goods imports, particularly semiconductors and equipment from Taiwan and Mexico, alongside commodity export volatility tied to energy prices. Market-implied odds incorporate the latest BEA and Census releases, with further monthly reports and any additional trade policy developments serving as near-term catalysts through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
ভলিউম
$24,712শেষ তারিখ
Feb 28, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. trade data through mid-2026 show the goods and services deficit running below 2025 levels on a year-to-date basis, with monthly figures fluctuating between roughly $70 billion and $119 billion amid tariff adjustments and shifting import patterns. Trader positioning around an $800–900 billion annual outcome reflects the cumulative impact of reciprocal tariffs implemented in 2025, which have curbed imports from key partners while prompting sourcing shifts to ASEAN nations and continued strength in services exports. Offsetting pressures include robust AI-related capital goods imports, particularly semiconductors and equipment from Taiwan and Mexico, alongside commodity export volatility tied to energy prices. Market-implied odds incorporate the latest BEA and Census releases, with further monthly reports and any additional trade policy developments serving as near-term catalysts through year-end.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা