The market-implied 96% probability that Jerome Powell will not be imprisoned before 2027 reflects the absence of any viable criminal case following the Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its probe into Federal Reserve headquarters renovations and related congressional testimony. A federal judge had already quashed subpoenas, citing zero evidence of wrongdoing beyond political friction over monetary policy, and referred the matter to the Fed’s inspector general. With Powell’s term as chair concluded and no subsequent indictments or charges filed, trader consensus aligns with the lack of prosecutorial basis or precedent for jailing a former Fed official on such grounds. Tail risks remain minimal but could include an unanticipated revival of inquiries or unrelated personal matters, though both appear remote given the prior judicial record and institutional safeguards.