Recent U.S. labor market strength, including 162,000 August payroll gains and a 4.1% unemployment rate, combined with elevated inflation—PCE at 3.6–3.7% year-over-year and core measures above target—has shifted trader sentiment toward a higher probability of rate hikes at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Market-implied odds reflect this tension, with Pause–Pause–Pause leading at 29% while various hike-inclusive paths collectively command over 60% probability. Persistent supply-side pressures, resilient growth, and evolving Fed communications under new leadership underpin the wide dispersion across sequences for the September, October, and December decisions. The upcoming September dot plot and incoming data on inflation and employment remain key near-term catalysts.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডPause–Pause–Pause 29%
Hike–Pause–Pause 15%
Hike–Hike–Pause 13%
Hike–Pause–Hike 11%
$14,926 Vol.
$14,926 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
11%
Hike–Pause–Pause
15%
Hike–Hike–Hike
6%
Hike–Hike–Pause
13%
Pause–Pause–Hike
6%
Pause–Pause–Pause
29%
Pause–Hike–Hike
9%
Pause–Hike–Pause
7%
Other
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause 29%
Hike–Pause–Pause 15%
Hike–Hike–Pause 13%
Hike–Pause–Hike 11%
$14,926 Vol.
$14,926 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$329 Vol.
11%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$538 Vol.
15%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$231 Vol.
6%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$474 Vol.
13%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$618 Vol.
6%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$11,737 Vol.
29%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$364 Vol.
9%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$366 Vol.
7%
Other
$269 Vol.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. labor market strength, including 162,000 August payroll gains and a 4.1% unemployment rate, combined with elevated inflation—PCE at 3.6–3.7% year-over-year and core measures above target—has shifted trader sentiment toward a higher probability of rate hikes at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Market-implied odds reflect this tension, with Pause–Pause–Pause leading at 29% while various hike-inclusive paths collectively command over 60% probability. Persistent supply-side pressures, resilient growth, and evolving Fed communications under new leadership underpin the wide dispersion across sequences for the September, October, and December decisions. The upcoming September dot plot and incoming data on inflation and employment remain key near-term catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
ভলিউম
$14,926শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. labor market strength, including 162,000 August payroll gains and a 4.1% unemployment rate, combined with elevated inflation—PCE at 3.6–3.7% year-over-year and core measures above target—has shifted trader sentiment toward a higher probability of rate hikes at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Market-implied odds reflect this tension, with Pause–Pause–Pause leading at 29% while various hike-inclusive paths collectively command over 60% probability. Persistent supply-side pressures, resilient growth, and evolving Fed communications under new leadership underpin the wide dispersion across sequences for the September, October, and December decisions. The upcoming September dot plot and incoming data on inflation and employment remain key near-term catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ভলিউম
$14,926শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. labor market strength, including 162,000 August payroll gains and a 4.1% unemployment rate, combined with elevated inflation—PCE at 3.6–3.7% year-over-year and core measures above target—has shifted trader sentiment toward a higher probability of rate hikes at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Market-implied odds reflect this tension, with Pause–Pause–Pause leading at 29% while various hike-inclusive paths collectively command over 60% probability. Persistent supply-side pressures, resilient growth, and evolving Fed communications under new leadership underpin the wide dispersion across sequences for the September, October, and December decisions. The upcoming September dot plot and incoming data on inflation and employment remain key near-term catalysts.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা