Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability against formal Israeli annexation of West Bank territory before 2027 because recent developments emphasize de facto control through settlement expansion, state land declarations, and administrative restructuring rather than explicit sovereignty legislation. Security cabinet decisions in early 2026 advanced land registration and regulatory authority in Area C, while July and September actions included new outposts, seizure orders in parts of Area A, and E1 tenders, yet Prime Minister Netanyahu has repeatedly blocked or diluted formal annexation bills amid U.S. opposition and coalition dynamics. Upcoming national elections add uncertainty, but the pattern favors incremental infrastructure and legal integration over a declared extension of Israeli law. Realistic shifts could stem from post-election government changes, major diplomatic breakthroughs, or altered U.S. policy that either enables or blocks a sovereignty vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
5% 概率
$90,919 交易量
$90,919 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 概率
$90,919 交易量
$90,919 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the West Bank by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability against formal Israeli annexation of West Bank territory before 2027 because recent developments emphasize de facto control through settlement expansion, state land declarations, and administrative restructuring rather than explicit sovereignty legislation. Security cabinet decisions in early 2026 advanced land registration and regulatory authority in Area C, while July and September actions included new outposts, seizure orders in parts of Area A, and E1 tenders, yet Prime Minister Netanyahu has repeatedly blocked or diluted formal annexation bills amid U.S. opposition and coalition dynamics. Upcoming national elections add uncertainty, but the pattern favors incremental infrastructure and legal integration over a declared extension of Israeli law. Realistic shifts could stem from post-election government changes, major diplomatic breakthroughs, or altered U.S. policy that either enables or blocks a sovereignty vote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the West Bank by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:37 PM ET
交易量
$90,919结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:37 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the West Bank by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability against formal Israeli annexation of West Bank territory before 2027 because recent developments emphasize de facto control through settlement expansion, state land declarations, and administrative restructuring rather than explicit sovereignty legislation. Security cabinet decisions in early 2026 advanced land registration and regulatory authority in Area C, while July and September actions included new outposts, seizure orders in parts of Area A, and E1 tenders, yet Prime Minister Netanyahu has repeatedly blocked or diluted formal annexation bills amid U.S. opposition and coalition dynamics. Upcoming national elections add uncertainty, but the pattern favors incremental infrastructure and legal integration over a declared extension of Israeli law. Realistic shifts could stem from post-election government changes, major diplomatic breakthroughs, or altered U.S. policy that either enables or blocks a sovereignty vote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the West Bank by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$90,919结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:37 PM ETTraders assign a 95.5% implied probability against formal Israeli annexation of West Bank territory before 2027 because recent developments emphasize de facto control through settlement expansion, state land declarations, and administrative restructuring rather than explicit sovereignty legislation. Security cabinet decisions in early 2026 advanced land registration and regulatory authority in Area C, while July and September actions included new outposts, seizure orders in parts of Area A, and E1 tenders, yet Prime Minister Netanyahu has repeatedly blocked or diluted formal annexation bills amid U.S. opposition and coalition dynamics. Upcoming national elections add uncertainty, but the pattern favors incremental infrastructure and legal integration over a declared extension of Israeli law. Realistic shifts could stem from post-election government changes, major diplomatic breakthroughs, or altered U.S. policy that either enables or blocks a sovereignty vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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