Recent polls place the Joint List (Hadash-Ta’al-Balad alliance) in a narrow band of roughly 6–8 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, translating to vote shares clustered near the 5–7 percent range. Arab-sector turnout trends, competition from Ra’am running separately, and broader fragmentation among opposition lists continue to compress expectations around this interval. Candidate-list finalization on September 8–9 produced only marginal shifts in surveys, leaving trader consensus tightly bunched because small changes in Arab participation or last-minute bloc realignments could easily move the outcome across the 5.5–6.5 percent and 7.5 percent thresholds. A surge in Arab turnout or renewed cross-party consolidation would favor the higher band, while sustained low mobilization or further splintering would push results toward the lower estimates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7.5%及以上 29%
4.5-5.5% 23%
5.5-6.5% 22%
低于4.5% 19%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
低于4.5%
19%
4.5-5.5%
23%
5.5-6.5%
36%
6.5-7.5%
18%
7.5%及以上
29%
7.5%及以上 29%
4.5-5.5% 23%
5.5-6.5% 22%
低于4.5% 19%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
低于4.5%
$110 交易量
19%
4.5-5.5%
$20 交易量
23%
5.5-6.5%
$110 交易量
36%
6.5-7.5%
$20 交易量
18%
7.5%及以上
$39 交易量
29%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls place the Joint List (Hadash-Ta’al-Balad alliance) in a narrow band of roughly 6–8 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, translating to vote shares clustered near the 5–7 percent range. Arab-sector turnout trends, competition from Ra’am running separately, and broader fragmentation among opposition lists continue to compress expectations around this interval. Candidate-list finalization on September 8–9 produced only marginal shifts in surveys, leaving trader consensus tightly bunched because small changes in Arab participation or last-minute bloc realignments could easily move the outcome across the 5.5–6.5 percent and 7.5 percent thresholds. A surge in Arab turnout or renewed cross-party consolidation would favor the higher band, while sustained low mobilization or further splintering would push results toward the lower estimates.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
市场开放时间： Sep 8, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
交易量
$300结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Sep 8, 2026, 2:38 PM ETLegislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls place the Joint List (Hadash-Ta’al-Balad alliance) in a narrow band of roughly 6–8 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, translating to vote shares clustered near the 5–7 percent range. Arab-sector turnout trends, competition from Ra’am running separately, and broader fragmentation among opposition lists continue to compress expectations around this interval. Candidate-list finalization on September 8–9 produced only marginal shifts in surveys, leaving trader consensus tightly bunched because small changes in Arab participation or last-minute bloc realignments could easily move the outcome across the 5.5–6.5 percent and 7.5 percent thresholds. A surge in Arab turnout or renewed cross-party consolidation would favor the higher band, while sustained low mobilization or further splintering would push results toward the lower estimates.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
交易量
$300结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Sep 8, 2026, 2:38 PM ETRecent polls place the Joint List (Hadash-Ta’al-Balad alliance) in a narrow band of roughly 6–8 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, translating to vote shares clustered near the 5–7 percent range. Arab-sector turnout trends, competition from Ra’am running separately, and broader fragmentation among opposition lists continue to compress expectations around this interval. Candidate-list finalization on September 8–9 produced only marginal shifts in surveys, leaving trader consensus tightly bunched because small changes in Arab participation or last-minute bloc realignments could easily move the outcome across the 5.5–6.5 percent and 7.5 percent thresholds. A surge in Arab turnout or renewed cross-party consolidation would favor the higher band, while sustained low mobilization or further splintering would push results toward the lower estimates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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