Seismic activity remains concentrated along major plate boundaries, especially the circum-Pacific Ring of Fire, where subduction zones in Indonesia, the Philippines, Vanuatu, Tonga, Alaska, and Chile produce the majority of magnitude 6.0+ events. USGS data through early September 2026 show multiple M5–6.3 quakes in these regions, including a 6.3 near Alaska on September 3 and several M5+ events around Vanuatu and the Philippines in the past week, consistent with historical rates of roughly 1–2 M6+ quakes globally per week. Short-term forecasts are not possible due to the stochastic nature of fault rupture, though ongoing monitoring by the USGS and regional networks tracks aftershocks and background rates. Traders assess probabilities using long-term catalogs, recent clustering, and resolution criteria focused on confirmed USGS magnitudes within geographic bins by September 30.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于到9月底， 6.0级以上的地震将在哪里发生？
到9月底， 6.0级以上的地震将在哪里发生？
最新
2026-10-03
印尼
53%
日本
48%
智利
34%
墨西哥
52%
美国
49%
菲律宾
34%
秘鲁
51%
$931 交易量
印尼
$0 交易量
53%
日本
$0 交易量
48%
智利
$0 交易量
34%
墨西哥
$1 交易量
52%
美国
$930 交易量
49%
菲律宾
$0 交易量
34%
秘鲁
$0 交易量
51%
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources.
If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Seismic activity remains concentrated along major plate boundaries, especially the circum-Pacific Ring of Fire, where subduction zones in Indonesia, the Philippines, Vanuatu, Tonga, Alaska, and Chile produce the majority of magnitude 6.0+ events. USGS data through early September 2026 show multiple M5–6.3 quakes in these regions, including a 6.3 near Alaska on September 3 and several M5+ events around Vanuatu and the Philippines in the past week, consistent with historical rates of roughly 1–2 M6+ quakes globally per week. Short-term forecasts are not possible due to the stochastic nature of fault rupture, though ongoing monitoring by the USGS and regional networks tracks aftershocks and background rates. Traders assess probabilities using long-term catalogs, recent clustering, and resolution criteria focused on confirmed USGS magnitudes within geographic bins by September 30.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources.
If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources.
If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
市场开放时间： Aug 31, 2026, 7:04 PM ET
交易量
$931结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 7:04 PM ETThis market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources.
If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Seismic activity remains concentrated along major plate boundaries, especially the circum-Pacific Ring of Fire, where subduction zones in Indonesia, the Philippines, Vanuatu, Tonga, Alaska, and Chile produce the majority of magnitude 6.0+ events. USGS data through early September 2026 show multiple M5–6.3 quakes in these regions, including a 6.3 near Alaska on September 3 and several M5+ events around Vanuatu and the Philippines in the past week, consistent with historical rates of roughly 1–2 M6+ quakes globally per week. Short-term forecasts are not possible due to the stochastic nature of fault rupture, though ongoing monitoring by the USGS and regional networks tracks aftershocks and background rates. Traders assess probabilities using long-term catalogs, recent clustering, and resolution criteria focused on confirmed USGS magnitudes within geographic bins by September 30.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources.
If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources.
If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$931结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 7:04 PM ETSeismic activity remains concentrated along major plate boundaries, especially the circum-Pacific Ring of Fire, where subduction zones in Indonesia, the Philippines, Vanuatu, Tonga, Alaska, and Chile produce the majority of magnitude 6.0+ events. USGS data through early September 2026 show multiple M5–6.3 quakes in these regions, including a 6.3 near Alaska on September 3 and several M5+ events around Vanuatu and the Philippines in the past week, consistent with historical rates of roughly 1–2 M6+ quakes globally per week. Short-term forecasts are not possible due to the stochastic nature of fault rupture, though ongoing monitoring by the USGS and regional networks tracks aftershocks and background rates. Traders assess probabilities using long-term catalogs, recent clustering, and resolution criteria focused on confirmed USGS magnitudes within geographic bins by September 30.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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