**With no dominant frontrunner this early in the 2027 Oscar cycle, trader sentiment for Best Documentary Feature reflects a wide-open field shaped by strong festival momentum and timely subjects.** American Doctor leads implied probabilities thanks to its Sundance premiere, multiple audience awards, and Watermelon Pictures acquisition, buoyed by visceral accounts of U.S. physicians treating children in Gaza and director Poh Si Teng’s track record. Once Upon a Time in Harlem follows closely on the strength of its rapturous Sundance and Cannes reception, Neon pickup, and recent Library of Congress Lavine/Ken Burns Prize, capitalizing on restored 1972 footage of Harlem Renaissance figures. Nuisance Bear, One in a Million, and Musk sit further back amid competition from other fall festival contenders, while the broad “Other” category captures the historical pattern that documentary winners often emerge late from guild and critics’ awards. Nominations arrive January 21, 2027.