Taylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” holds the market’s narrow lead at 55.5% implied probability, reflecting her record VMA wins and the video’s tie to a Billboard Hot 100-topping single from The Life of a Showgirl. Madonna’s Confessions II – The Film sits at 24%, buoyed by her overall nomination lead and the ambitious long-form format but tempered by a 22-year gap since her last Video of the Year nod. Sabrina Carpenter’s “Tears,” Ariana Grande’s “Hate That I Made You Love Me,” Bruno Mars’ “I Just Might,” and GENER8ION’s “Storm” trail at single-digit odds. With the Sept. 27 ceremony eight days away and fan voting closing Sept. 25, recent chart performance, critical reception, and historical voter patterns for established pop icons remain the key swing factors in this tight six-way field.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年度VMA视频
2026年度VMA视频
The Fate of Ophelia（泰勒·斯威夫特） 56%
Confessions II – The Film（麦当娜） 24%
Tears（萨布丽娜·卡彭特） 7%
Hate That I Made You Love Me（Ariana Grande） 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-27
The Fate of Ophelia（泰勒·斯威夫特）
56%
Confessions II – The Film（麦当娜）
24%
Tears（萨布丽娜·卡彭特）
7%
Hate That I Made You Love Me（Ariana Grande）
5%
Storm（Gener8ion与Yung Lean合作）
5%
I Just Might（Bruno Mars）
5%
The Fate of Ophelia（泰勒·斯威夫特） 56%
Confessions II – The Film（麦当娜） 24%
Tears（萨布丽娜·卡彭特） 7%
Hate That I Made You Love Me（Ariana Grande） 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-27
The Fate of Ophelia（泰勒·斯威夫特）
$2,401 交易量
56%
Confessions II – The Film（麦当娜）
$620 交易量
24%
Tears（萨布丽娜·卡彭特）
$56 交易量
7%
Hate That I Made You Love Me（Ariana Grande）
$40 交易量
5%
Storm（Gener8ion与Yung Lean合作）
$4 交易量
5%
I Just Might（Bruno Mars）
$79 交易量
5%
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Taylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” holds the market’s narrow lead at 55.5% implied probability, reflecting her record VMA wins and the video’s tie to a Billboard Hot 100-topping single from The Life of a Showgirl. Madonna’s Confessions II – The Film sits at 24%, buoyed by her overall nomination lead and the ambitious long-form format but tempered by a 22-year gap since her last Video of the Year nod. Sabrina Carpenter’s “Tears,” Ariana Grande’s “Hate That I Made You Love Me,” Bruno Mars’ “I Just Might,” and GENER8ION’s “Storm” trail at single-digit odds. With the Sept. 27 ceremony eight days away and fan voting closing Sept. 25, recent chart performance, critical reception, and historical voter patterns for established pop icons remain the key swing factors in this tight six-way field.
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ET
交易量
$3,201结束日期
2026-09-28市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ETThe MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Taylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” holds the market’s narrow lead at 55.5% implied probability, reflecting her record VMA wins and the video’s tie to a Billboard Hot 100-topping single from The Life of a Showgirl. Madonna’s Confessions II – The Film sits at 24%, buoyed by her overall nomination lead and the ambitious long-form format but tempered by a 22-year gap since her last Video of the Year nod. Sabrina Carpenter’s “Tears,” Ariana Grande’s “Hate That I Made You Love Me,” Bruno Mars’ “I Just Might,” and GENER8ION’s “Storm” trail at single-digit odds. With the Sept. 27 ceremony eight days away and fan voting closing Sept. 25, recent chart performance, critical reception, and historical voter patterns for established pop icons remain the key swing factors in this tight six-way field.
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$3,201结束日期
2026-09-28市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ETTaylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” holds the market’s narrow lead at 55.5% implied probability, reflecting her record VMA wins and the video’s tie to a Billboard Hot 100-topping single from The Life of a Showgirl. Madonna’s Confessions II – The Film sits at 24%, buoyed by her overall nomination lead and the ambitious long-form format but tempered by a 22-year gap since her last Video of the Year nod. Sabrina Carpenter’s “Tears,” Ariana Grande’s “Hate That I Made You Love Me,” Bruno Mars’ “I Just Might,” and GENER8ION’s “Storm” trail at single-digit odds. With the Sept. 27 ceremony eight days away and fan voting closing Sept. 25, recent chart performance, critical reception, and historical voter patterns for established pop icons remain the key swing factors in this tight six-way field.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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