Recent polling from mid-to-late September 2026 shows Roseana Sarney (MDB) maintaining a lead in combined vote intentions for Maranhão's two Senate seats, supported by her established profile and coalition backing, while André Fufuca (PP), Lahesio Bonfim (NOVO), Weverton Rocha (PDT), and Eliziane Gama (PT) remain closely grouped behind her. The race stays tight because voters select up to two candidates in a single-round contest, fragmenting support across 11 registered contenders ahead of the October 4 vote. Late-campaign momentum, turnout patterns in key regions, and any last-minute endorsements or shifts in alliances could separate the top finishers, as current surveys place several names within or near the margin of error for second place.