Incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson anchors the Republican position in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district, where all major forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Republican. The district’s consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent presidential elections, combined with Johnson’s high visibility and fundraising, have produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 94.5 percent Republican share. Multiple Republican candidates are competing in the November 3 jungle primary, virtually ensuring the party nominee advances to the December general if needed. Democratic challengers face structural barriers that have kept their implied probability near 5.5 percent. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic surge could still shift outcomes, though historical patterns in the district limit those possibilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$11,997 交易量
$11,997 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
95%
民主党
6%
$11,997 交易量
$11,997 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
$3,671 交易量
95%
民主党
$8,326 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson anchors the Republican position in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district, where all major forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Republican. The district’s consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent presidential elections, combined with Johnson’s high visibility and fundraising, have produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 94.5 percent Republican share. Multiple Republican candidates are competing in the November 3 jungle primary, virtually ensuring the party nominee advances to the December general if needed. Democratic challengers face structural barriers that have kept their implied probability near 5.5 percent. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic surge could still shift outcomes, though historical patterns in the district limit those possibilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$11,997结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson anchors the Republican position in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district, where all major forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Republican. The district’s consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent presidential elections, combined with Johnson’s high visibility and fundraising, have produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 94.5 percent Republican share. Multiple Republican candidates are competing in the November 3 jungle primary, virtually ensuring the party nominee advances to the December general if needed. Democratic challengers face structural barriers that have kept their implied probability near 5.5 percent. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic surge could still shift outcomes, though historical patterns in the district limit those possibilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$11,997结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETIncumbent Speaker Mike Johnson anchors the Republican position in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district, where all major forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Republican. The district’s consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent presidential elections, combined with Johnson’s high visibility and fundraising, have produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 94.5 percent Republican share. Multiple Republican candidates are competing in the November 3 jungle primary, virtually ensuring the party nominee advances to the December general if needed. Democratic challengers face structural barriers that have kept their implied probability near 5.5 percent. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic surge could still shift outcomes, though historical patterns in the district limit those possibilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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