Incumbent KMT mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang holds an 85.5% implied probability in the November 28, 2026, Keelung mayoral race, reflecting traders' assessment of his incumbency advantage in a traditionally KMT-leaning city. He survived a 2024 recall attempt by a 55-45% margin and has maintained visibility through recent disaster relief, including activation of reserve funds for flood-damaged homes and vehicles after heavy rains in early September. Main challenger DPP nominee and city council speaker Tung Tzu-wei trails at 11.5% amid August polling showing Hsieh ahead overall (38.6% to 33.2%) but nearly tied among likely voters. An independent candidate registered but registers minimal market attention. The pricing aligns with Hsieh's structural edge heading into the final stretch before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2027-06-30
谢国樑
86%
童子瑋
12%
最新
最新
2027-06-30
谢国樑
$1,127 交易量
86%
童子瑋
$656 交易量
12%
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Incumbent KMT mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang holds an 85.5% implied probability in the November 28, 2026, Keelung mayoral race, reflecting traders' assessment of his incumbency advantage in a traditionally KMT-leaning city. He survived a 2024 recall attempt by a 55-45% margin and has maintained visibility through recent disaster relief, including activation of reserve funds for flood-damaged homes and vehicles after heavy rains in early September. Main challenger DPP nominee and city council speaker Tung Tzu-wei trails at 11.5% amid August polling showing Hsieh ahead overall (38.6% to 33.2%) but nearly tied among likely voters. An independent candidate registered but registers minimal market attention. The pricing aligns with Hsieh's structural edge heading into the final stretch before election day.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 8:52 AM ET
交易量
$1,783结束日期
2026-11-28市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 8:52 AM ETTaiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Incumbent KMT mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang holds an 85.5% implied probability in the November 28, 2026, Keelung mayoral race, reflecting traders' assessment of his incumbency advantage in a traditionally KMT-leaning city. He survived a 2024 recall attempt by a 55-45% margin and has maintained visibility through recent disaster relief, including activation of reserve funds for flood-damaged homes and vehicles after heavy rains in early September. Main challenger DPP nominee and city council speaker Tung Tzu-wei trails at 11.5% amid August polling showing Hsieh ahead overall (38.6% to 33.2%) but nearly tied among likely voters. An independent candidate registered but registers minimal market attention. The pricing aligns with Hsieh's structural edge heading into the final stretch before election day.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
交易量
$1,783结束日期
2026-11-28市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 8:52 AM ETIncumbent KMT mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang holds an 85.5% implied probability in the November 28, 2026, Keelung mayoral race, reflecting traders' assessment of his incumbency advantage in a traditionally KMT-leaning city. He survived a 2024 recall attempt by a 55-45% margin and has maintained visibility through recent disaster relief, including activation of reserve funds for flood-damaged homes and vehicles after heavy rains in early September. Main challenger DPP nominee and city council speaker Tung Tzu-wei trails at 11.5% amid August polling showing Hsieh ahead overall (38.6% to 33.2%) but nearly tied among likely voters. An independent candidate registered but registers minimal market attention. The pricing aligns with Hsieh's structural edge heading into the final stretch before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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