**A crowded field of nine qualified candidates in Louisiana’s 5th Congressional District jungle primary makes an outright majority win on November 3 highly unlikely, driving trader consensus toward a December 12 runoff at 95% implied probability for “No.”** Incumbent Julia Letlow vacated the solidly Republican seat (rated Safe/Solid R by multiple forecasters) to pursue the U.S. Senate, where she advanced through the Republican primary. The open race drew multiple Republicans—including state Sen. Stewart Cathey, state Reps. Michael Echols and Gabe Firment, Misti Cordell, and Austin Magee—plus Democratic contenders Dan McKay, Patricia Moore, and Antonio Wilson after the August 7 filing deadline. Louisiana’s majority-vote system requires over 50% for an outright win; otherwise the top two advance regardless of party. Historical patterns in similarly fragmented Louisiana House contests show runoffs as the norm, and no late consolidation, polling surge, or dominant frontrunner has emerged to alter that assessment ahead of the November 3 first round.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
4% 概率
最新
最新
2027-03-31
是
4% 概率
最新
最新
2027-03-31
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-05 House election.**A crowded field of nine qualified candidates in Louisiana’s 5th Congressional District jungle primary makes an outright majority win on November 3 highly unlikely, driving trader consensus toward a December 12 runoff at 95% implied probability for “No.”**
Incumbent Julia Letlow vacated the solidly Republican seat (rated Safe/Solid R by multiple forecasters) to pursue the U.S. Senate, where she advanced through the Republican primary. The open race drew multiple Republicans—including state Sen. Stewart Cathey, state Reps. Michael Echols and Gabe Firment, Misti Cordell, and Austin Magee—plus Democratic contenders Dan McKay, Patricia Moore, and Antonio Wilson after the August 7 filing deadline. Louisiana’s majority-vote system requires over 50% for an outright win; otherwise the top two advance regardless of party. Historical patterns in similarly fragmented Louisiana House contests show runoffs as the norm, and no late consolidation, polling surge, or dominant frontrunner has emerged to alter that assessment ahead of the November 3 first round.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-05 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-05 House election.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
交易量
$2,102结束日期
2027-04-01市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETThe first round of the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-05 House election.**A crowded field of nine qualified candidates in Louisiana’s 5th Congressional District jungle primary makes an outright majority win on November 3 highly unlikely, driving trader consensus toward a December 12 runoff at 95% implied probability for “No.”**
Incumbent Julia Letlow vacated the solidly Republican seat (rated Safe/Solid R by multiple forecasters) to pursue the U.S. Senate, where she advanced through the Republican primary. The open race drew multiple Republicans—including state Sen. Stewart Cathey, state Reps. Michael Echols and Gabe Firment, Misti Cordell, and Austin Magee—plus Democratic contenders Dan McKay, Patricia Moore, and Antonio Wilson after the August 7 filing deadline. Louisiana’s majority-vote system requires over 50% for an outright win; otherwise the top two advance regardless of party. Historical patterns in similarly fragmented Louisiana House contests show runoffs as the norm, and no late consolidation, polling surge, or dominant frontrunner has emerged to alter that assessment ahead of the November 3 first round.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-05 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-05 House election.
交易量
$2,102结束日期
2027-04-01市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ET**A crowded field of nine qualified candidates in Louisiana’s 5th Congressional District jungle primary makes an outright majority win on November 3 highly unlikely, driving trader consensus toward a December 12 runoff at 95% implied probability for “No.”** Incumbent Julia Letlow vacated the solidly Republican seat (rated Safe/Solid R by multiple forecasters) to pursue the U.S. Senate, where she advanced through the Republican primary. The open race drew multiple Republicans—including state Sen. Stewart Cathey, state Reps. Michael Echols and Gabe Firment, Misti Cordell, and Austin Magee—plus Democratic contenders Dan McKay, Patricia Moore, and Antonio Wilson after the August 7 filing deadline. Louisiana’s majority-vote system requires over 50% for an outright win; otherwise the top two advance regardless of party. Historical patterns in similarly fragmented Louisiana House contests show runoffs as the norm, and no late consolidation, polling surge, or dominant frontrunner has emerged to alter that assessment ahead of the November 3 first round.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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