Republican control of the House through the remainder of 2026 creates the primary structural barrier to impeachment by year-end, as articles of impeachment require a majority vote in that chamber. The November midterms, which could shift control to Democrats, occur too late for any new majority to organize and advance proceedings before January 2027. Traders assign near-certain odds to "No" because party-line dynamics and historical precedent show limited appetite for impeaching a president of the same party absent extraordinary bipartisan consensus. Late-session developments, such as a major scandal prompting Republican defections or procedural maneuvers before adjournment, represent the narrow pathways that could still alter the outcome.