The near-certain trader consensus that Donald Trump will remain president through September 30 stems from the absence of any viable removal mechanism that could conclude in the remaining days. The House recently tabled the latest impeachment resolution on immigration enforcement matters by a 232-147 vote, with limited Democratic support and no path to Senate conviction. No active 25th Amendment proceedings or cabinet actions exist, while public reports on the president's health and schedule show continuity rather than acute incapacity. Resignation lacks any supporting statements or institutional pressure. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden documented medical event triggering succession or an unforeseen legal development, though both remain outside observed patterns and would require rapid verification to affect the short timeline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
<1% 機率
$1,334,245 交易量
$1,334,245 交易量
2026-09-30
是
<1% 機率
$1,334,245 交易量
$1,334,245 交易量
2026-09-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The near-certain trader consensus that Donald Trump will remain president through September 30 stems from the absence of any viable removal mechanism that could conclude in the remaining days. The House recently tabled the latest impeachment resolution on immigration enforcement matters by a 232-147 vote, with limited Democratic support and no path to Senate conviction. No active 25th Amendment proceedings or cabinet actions exist, while public reports on the president's health and schedule show continuity rather than acute incapacity. Resignation lacks any supporting statements or institutional pressure. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden documented medical event triggering succession or an unforeseen legal development, though both remain outside observed patterns and would require rapid verification to affect the short timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ET
交易量
$1,334,245結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The near-certain trader consensus that Donald Trump will remain president through September 30 stems from the absence of any viable removal mechanism that could conclude in the remaining days. The House recently tabled the latest impeachment resolution on immigration enforcement matters by a 232-147 vote, with limited Democratic support and no path to Senate conviction. No active 25th Amendment proceedings or cabinet actions exist, while public reports on the president's health and schedule show continuity rather than acute incapacity. Resignation lacks any supporting statements or institutional pressure. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden documented medical event triggering succession or an unforeseen legal development, though both remain outside observed patterns and would require rapid verification to affect the short timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,334,245結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ETThe near-certain trader consensus that Donald Trump will remain president through September 30 stems from the absence of any viable removal mechanism that could conclude in the remaining days. The House recently tabled the latest impeachment resolution on immigration enforcement matters by a 232-147 vote, with limited Democratic support and no path to Senate conviction. No active 25th Amendment proceedings or cabinet actions exist, while public reports on the president's health and schedule show continuity rather than acute incapacity. Resignation lacks any supporting statements or institutional pressure. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden documented medical event triggering succession or an unforeseen legal development, though both remain outside observed patterns and would require rapid verification to affect the short timeline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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