Mount Vesuvius remains in a quiescent state with a sealed conduit, as confirmed by the Osservatorio Vesuviano’s green alert level and baseline monitoring parameters through August 2026. Seismic activity stayed low with 112 mostly micro-earthquakes (maximum magnitude 1.6), no magmatic ground deformation detected via GNSS, and stable or declining fumarolic temperatures and gas emissions. These conditions align with the volcano’s 82-year repose since its 1944 VEI 2 eruption, making a VEI 1+ event in the remaining months of 2026 highly improbable. Trader consensus at 93.2% for “No” reflects this lack of precursors. An abrupt shift could occur if new data showed rising seismicity, inflation, or geochemical changes indicating magma ascent, though such signals have been absent in recent INGV reports.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
3% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
3% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.Mount Vesuvius remains in a quiescent state with a sealed conduit, as confirmed by the Osservatorio Vesuviano’s green alert level and baseline monitoring parameters through August 2026. Seismic activity stayed low with 112 mostly micro-earthquakes (maximum magnitude 1.6), no magmatic ground deformation detected via GNSS, and stable or declining fumarolic temperatures and gas emissions. These conditions align with the volcano’s 82-year repose since its 1944 VEI 2 eruption, making a VEI 1+ event in the remaining months of 2026 highly improbable. Trader consensus at 93.2% for “No” reflects this lack of precursors. An abrupt shift could occur if new data showed rising seismicity, inflation, or geochemical changes indicating magma ascent, though such signals have been absent in recent INGV reports.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
市場開放時間： Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
交易量
$660結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.Mount Vesuvius remains in a quiescent state with a sealed conduit, as confirmed by the Osservatorio Vesuviano’s green alert level and baseline monitoring parameters through August 2026. Seismic activity stayed low with 112 mostly micro-earthquakes (maximum magnitude 1.6), no magmatic ground deformation detected via GNSS, and stable or declining fumarolic temperatures and gas emissions. These conditions align with the volcano’s 82-year repose since its 1944 VEI 2 eruption, making a VEI 1+ event in the remaining months of 2026 highly improbable. Trader consensus at 93.2% for “No” reflects this lack of precursors. An abrupt shift could occur if new data showed rising seismicity, inflation, or geochemical changes indicating magma ascent, though such signals have been absent in recent INGV reports.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
交易量
$660結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETMount Vesuvius remains in a quiescent state with a sealed conduit, as confirmed by the Osservatorio Vesuviano’s green alert level and baseline monitoring parameters through August 2026. Seismic activity stayed low with 112 mostly micro-earthquakes (maximum magnitude 1.6), no magmatic ground deformation detected via GNSS, and stable or declining fumarolic temperatures and gas emissions. These conditions align with the volcano’s 82-year repose since its 1944 VEI 2 eruption, making a VEI 1+ event in the remaining months of 2026 highly improbable. Trader consensus at 93.2% for “No” reflects this lack of precursors. An abrupt shift could occur if new data showed rising seismicity, inflation, or geochemical changes indicating magma ascent, though such signals have been absent in recent INGV reports.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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