The 97% market-implied probability of no Hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflects the virus’s primary rodent-borne transmission, which rarely produces efficient human-to-human spread except for the Andes strain. Official surveillance following the April–May 2026 MV Hondius cruise-ship cluster—limited to 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths—showed no sustained community transmission after 42-day quarantines and contact tracing across multiple countries; U.S. and WHO monitoring concluded by early July with zero secondary cases outside the initial group. Endemic South American incidence remains at typical seasonal levels without exponential growth. While a novel, highly transmissible variant could theoretically alter dynamics, current genomic data indicate the outbreak stemmed from a single zoonotic spillover without evidence of enhanced airborne or sustained interpersonal spread.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026年漢坦病毒大流行？
2026年漢坦病毒大流行？
是
3% 機率
$18,129,784 交易量
$18,129,784 交易量
2026-12-31
是
3% 機率
$18,129,784 交易量
$18,129,784 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 97% market-implied probability of no Hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflects the virus’s primary rodent-borne transmission, which rarely produces efficient human-to-human spread except for the Andes strain. Official surveillance following the April–May 2026 MV Hondius cruise-ship cluster—limited to 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths—showed no sustained community transmission after 42-day quarantines and contact tracing across multiple countries; U.S. and WHO monitoring concluded by early July with zero secondary cases outside the initial group. Endemic South American incidence remains at typical seasonal levels without exponential growth. While a novel, highly transmissible variant could theoretically alter dynamics, current genomic data indicate the outbreak stemmed from a single zoonotic spillover without evidence of enhanced airborne or sustained interpersonal spread.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
交易量
$18,129,784結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 97% market-implied probability of no Hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflects the virus’s primary rodent-borne transmission, which rarely produces efficient human-to-human spread except for the Andes strain. Official surveillance following the April–May 2026 MV Hondius cruise-ship cluster—limited to 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths—showed no sustained community transmission after 42-day quarantines and contact tracing across multiple countries; U.S. and WHO monitoring concluded by early July with zero secondary cases outside the initial group. Endemic South American incidence remains at typical seasonal levels without exponential growth. While a novel, highly transmissible variant could theoretically alter dynamics, current genomic data indicate the outbreak stemmed from a single zoonotic spillover without evidence of enhanced airborne or sustained interpersonal spread.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$18,129,784結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETThe 97% market-implied probability of no Hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflects the virus’s primary rodent-borne transmission, which rarely produces efficient human-to-human spread except for the Andes strain. Official surveillance following the April–May 2026 MV Hondius cruise-ship cluster—limited to 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths—showed no sustained community transmission after 42-day quarantines and contact tracing across multiple countries; U.S. and WHO monitoring concluded by early July with zero secondary cases outside the initial group. Endemic South American incidence remains at typical seasonal levels without exponential growth. While a novel, highly transmissible variant could theoretically alter dynamics, current genomic data indicate the outbreak stemmed from a single zoonotic spillover without evidence of enhanced airborne or sustained interpersonal spread.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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