Recent explosive activity at Anak Krakatau in early September 2026, with a sustained ash plume reaching 15 km and preliminary tephra estimates near the VEI 4 threshold of 0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent, represents the leading catalyst for the near-even market split between zero and one event. Official VEI assignments from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, which require confirmed plume heights above 10 km or sufficient ejecta volume, remain pending for this and any additional late-year activity amid ongoing Indonesian unrest. Historically, VEI ≥4 eruptions average fewer than one per year, with most years recording zero; the three remaining months introduce uncertainty from potential intensification at monitored systems like Semeru or Lewotobi, though model consensus and current monitoring data favor limited escalation before December 31.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於0 50%
1 44%
2 6.8%
3 2.3%
$1,164,570 交易量
$1,164,570 交易量
2026-12-31
0
38%
1
43%
2
7%
3
2%
4
<1%
5+
1%
0 50%
1 44%
2 6.8%
3 2.3%
$1,164,570 交易量
$1,164,570 交易量
2026-12-31
0
$499,898 交易量
38%
1
$274,881 交易量
43%
2
$46,048 交易量
7%
3
$32,146 交易量
2%
4
$35,659 交易量
<1%
5+
$275,938 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Recent explosive activity at Anak Krakatau in early September 2026, with a sustained ash plume reaching 15 km and preliminary tephra estimates near the VEI 4 threshold of 0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent, represents the leading catalyst for the near-even market split between zero and one event. Official VEI assignments from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, which require confirmed plume heights above 10 km or sufficient ejecta volume, remain pending for this and any additional late-year activity amid ongoing Indonesian unrest. Historically, VEI ≥4 eruptions average fewer than one per year, with most years recording zero; the three remaining months introduce uncertainty from potential intensification at monitored systems like Semeru or Lewotobi, though model consensus and current monitoring data favor limited escalation before December 31.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
交易量
$1,164,570結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Recent explosive activity at Anak Krakatau in early September 2026, with a sustained ash plume reaching 15 km and preliminary tephra estimates near the VEI 4 threshold of 0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent, represents the leading catalyst for the near-even market split between zero and one event. Official VEI assignments from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, which require confirmed plume heights above 10 km or sufficient ejecta volume, remain pending for this and any additional late-year activity amid ongoing Indonesian unrest. Historically, VEI ≥4 eruptions average fewer than one per year, with most years recording zero; the three remaining months introduce uncertainty from potential intensification at monitored systems like Semeru or Lewotobi, though model consensus and current monitoring data favor limited escalation before December 31.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
交易量
$1,164,570結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETRecent explosive activity at Anak Krakatau in early September 2026, with a sustained ash plume reaching 15 km and preliminary tephra estimates near the VEI 4 threshold of 0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent, represents the leading catalyst for the near-even market split between zero and one event. Official VEI assignments from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, which require confirmed plume heights above 10 km or sufficient ejecta volume, remain pending for this and any additional late-year activity amid ongoing Indonesian unrest. Historically, VEI ≥4 eruptions average fewer than one per year, with most years recording zero; the three remaining months introduce uncertainty from potential intensification at monitored systems like Semeru or Lewotobi, though model consensus and current monitoring data favor limited escalation before December 31.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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