Recent National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts indicate a minimum temperature in the upper 50s Fahrenheit for San Francisco on September 22, driven by a persistent marine layer and moderate southwest winds that limit nocturnal cooling while preventing significant warming. This aligns with the historical average low of 55.7°F and recent observations showing overnight readings of 57–58°F under partly cloudy skies. The market’s emphasis on 58–59°F reflects trader assessment of these stable conditions, with lower probabilities for sub-56°F outcomes given the absence of strong radiative cooling or northerly flow. Updated guidance ahead of the overnight period remains the key variable that could shift implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於舊金山9月22日的最低溫度？
舊金山9月22日的最低溫度？
58-59°F 64%
60-61°F 23%
56-57°F 18%
52-53°F 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-22
華氏51度或以下
7%
52-53°F
11%
54-55°F
11%
56-57°F
18%
58-59°F
41%
60-61°F
23%
62-63°F
10%
64-65°F
11%
66-67°F
7%
68-69°F
5%
華氏70度或以上
5%
58-59°F 64%
60-61°F 23%
56-57°F 18%
52-53°F 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-22
華氏51度或以下
$10 交易量
7%
52-53°F
$58 交易量
11%
54-55°F
$0 交易量
11%
56-57°F
$71 交易量
18%
58-59°F
$94 交易量
41%
60-61°F
$0 交易量
23%
62-63°F
$0 交易量
10%
64-65°F
$10 交易量
11%
66-67°F
$10 交易量
7%
68-69°F
$10 交易量
5%
華氏70度或以上
$10 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts indicate a minimum temperature in the upper 50s Fahrenheit for San Francisco on September 22, driven by a persistent marine layer and moderate southwest winds that limit nocturnal cooling while preventing significant warming. This aligns with the historical average low of 55.7°F and recent observations showing overnight readings of 57–58°F under partly cloudy skies. The market’s emphasis on 58–59°F reflects trader assessment of these stable conditions, with lower probabilities for sub-56°F outcomes given the absence of strong radiative cooling or northerly flow. Updated guidance ahead of the overnight period remains the key variable that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 20, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
交易量
$273結束日期
2026-09-22市場開放時間
Sep 20, 2026, 7:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts indicate a minimum temperature in the upper 50s Fahrenheit for San Francisco on September 22, driven by a persistent marine layer and moderate southwest winds that limit nocturnal cooling while preventing significant warming. This aligns with the historical average low of 55.7°F and recent observations showing overnight readings of 57–58°F under partly cloudy skies. The market’s emphasis on 58–59°F reflects trader assessment of these stable conditions, with lower probabilities for sub-56°F outcomes given the absence of strong radiative cooling or northerly flow. Updated guidance ahead of the overnight period remains the key variable that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$273結束日期
2026-09-22市場開放時間
Sep 20, 2026, 7:29 AM ETRecent National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts indicate a minimum temperature in the upper 50s Fahrenheit for San Francisco on September 22, driven by a persistent marine layer and moderate southwest winds that limit nocturnal cooling while preventing significant warming. This aligns with the historical average low of 55.7°F and recent observations showing overnight readings of 57–58°F under partly cloudy skies. The market’s emphasis on 58–59°F reflects trader assessment of these stable conditions, with lower probabilities for sub-56°F outcomes given the absence of strong radiative cooling or northerly flow. Updated guidance ahead of the overnight period remains the key variable that could shift implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions