Traders assign a 97.2 percent probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027 because Congress has repeatedly raised the debt ceiling and passed continuing resolutions to avoid default, reflecting entrenched incentives to protect Treasury markets and economic stability. Recent appropriations cycles and bipartisan negotiations have reinforced this pattern, with the Treasury Department managing cash flows through extraordinary measures when needed. Historical base rates show defaults averted even during periods of divided government. Scenarios that could still shift odds include prolonged partisan gridlock preventing a debt-limit increase, an unforeseen fiscal shock overwhelming standard procedures, or a rare failure to enact necessary legislation before statutory deadlines.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2027年美國債務違約？
2027年美國債務違約？
是
3% 機率
$18,167 交易量
$18,167 交易量
2026-12-30
是
3% 機率
$18,167 交易量
$18,167 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97.2 percent probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027 because Congress has repeatedly raised the debt ceiling and passed continuing resolutions to avoid default, reflecting entrenched incentives to protect Treasury markets and economic stability. Recent appropriations cycles and bipartisan negotiations have reinforced this pattern, with the Treasury Department managing cash flows through extraordinary measures when needed. Historical base rates show defaults averted even during periods of divided government. Scenarios that could still shift odds include prolonged partisan gridlock preventing a debt-limit increase, an unforeseen fiscal shock overwhelming standard procedures, or a rare failure to enact necessary legislation before statutory deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
交易量
$18,167結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97.2 percent probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027 because Congress has repeatedly raised the debt ceiling and passed continuing resolutions to avoid default, reflecting entrenched incentives to protect Treasury markets and economic stability. Recent appropriations cycles and bipartisan negotiations have reinforced this pattern, with the Treasury Department managing cash flows through extraordinary measures when needed. Historical base rates show defaults averted even during periods of divided government. Scenarios that could still shift odds include prolonged partisan gridlock preventing a debt-limit increase, an unforeseen fiscal shock overwhelming standard procedures, or a rare failure to enact necessary legislation before statutory deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
交易量
$18,167結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETTraders assign a 97.2 percent probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027 because Congress has repeatedly raised the debt ceiling and passed continuing resolutions to avoid default, reflecting entrenched incentives to protect Treasury markets and economic stability. Recent appropriations cycles and bipartisan negotiations have reinforced this pattern, with the Treasury Department managing cash flows through extraordinary measures when needed. Historical base rates show defaults averted even during periods of divided government. Scenarios that could still shift odds include prolonged partisan gridlock preventing a debt-limit increase, an unforeseen fiscal shock overwhelming standard procedures, or a rare failure to enact necessary legislation before statutory deadlines.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions