Ongoing gray-zone activities by Chinese forces, including air and naval incursions around Taiwan alongside coast guard operations near outlying islands, have continued without crossing into preparations for a full-scale amphibious invasion. Internal People’s Liberation Army challenges, including senior officer purges that have weakened command structures, further constrain Beijing’s near-term capacity for a complex landing operation. Taiwan’s record defense budget proposal, expanded drone procurement, and Han Kuang exercises reflect heightened preparedness that raises the anticipated costs of any assault. Traders’ 96.2 percent consensus on no invasion by year-end aligns with this pattern of calibrated pressure rather than imminent conflict. A sudden miscalculation, major cross-strait incident, or accelerated mobilization in the final months could still shift assessments before December 31.