Recent preliminary reports place the 2026 U.S. tornado total above 1,400 through early September, well ahead of the typical pace and supporting strong trader consensus around a 1,250-plus finish. Elevated spring and early-summer activity, including an Illinois total already exceeding 200, has driven the surge, consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions favoring more frequent tornado-favorable patterns across the Midwest and Plains. An emerging El Niño may increase late-season wind shear and modestly suppress autumn and winter counts, yet the year-to-date surplus leaves little room for the annual figure to fall below 1,250. NOAA Storm Prediction Center data and ongoing National Weather Service surveys will continue to refine counts ahead of final verification.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於1250+ 89%
1200–1249 5.2%
1150–1199 4.5%
1100–1149 3.4%
$82,166 交易量
$82,166 交易量
2027-01-09
少於950個
1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
1%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
5%
1200–1249
5%
1250+
89%
1250+ 89%
1200–1249 5.2%
1150–1199 4.5%
1100–1149 3.4%
$82,166 交易量
$82,166 交易量
2027-01-09
少於950個
$23,728 交易量
1%
950–999
$3,621 交易量
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 交易量
<1%
1050–1099
$9,172 交易量
1%
1100–1149
$3,254 交易量
3%
1150–1199
$4,082 交易量
5%
1200–1249
$15,917 交易量
5%
1250+
$18,941 交易量
89%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent preliminary reports place the 2026 U.S. tornado total above 1,400 through early September, well ahead of the typical pace and supporting strong trader consensus around a 1,250-plus finish. Elevated spring and early-summer activity, including an Illinois total already exceeding 200, has driven the surge, consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions favoring more frequent tornado-favorable patterns across the Midwest and Plains. An emerging El Niño may increase late-season wind shear and modestly suppress autumn and winter counts, yet the year-to-date surplus leaves little room for the annual figure to fall below 1,250. NOAA Storm Prediction Center data and ongoing National Weather Service surveys will continue to refine counts ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
市場開放時間： Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
交易量
$82,166結束日期
2027-01-10市場開放時間
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent preliminary reports place the 2026 U.S. tornado total above 1,400 through early September, well ahead of the typical pace and supporting strong trader consensus around a 1,250-plus finish. Elevated spring and early-summer activity, including an Illinois total already exceeding 200, has driven the surge, consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions favoring more frequent tornado-favorable patterns across the Midwest and Plains. An emerging El Niño may increase late-season wind shear and modestly suppress autumn and winter counts, yet the year-to-date surplus leaves little room for the annual figure to fall below 1,250. NOAA Storm Prediction Center data and ongoing National Weather Service surveys will continue to refine counts ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$82,166結束日期
2027-01-10市場開放時間
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETRecent preliminary reports place the 2026 U.S. tornado total above 1,400 through early September, well ahead of the typical pace and supporting strong trader consensus around a 1,250-plus finish. Elevated spring and early-summer activity, including an Illinois total already exceeding 200, has driven the surge, consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions favoring more frequent tornado-favorable patterns across the Midwest and Plains. An emerging El Niño may increase late-season wind shear and modestly suppress autumn and winter counts, yet the year-to-date surplus leaves little room for the annual figure to fall below 1,250. NOAA Storm Prediction Center data and ongoing National Weather Service surveys will continue to refine counts ahead of final verification.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions