**Trader consensus on an 82% implied probability of no new pandemic before 2028 reflects strengthened post-COVID surveillance, rapid containment of recent outbreaks, and the low baseline likelihood of a novel pathogen achieving sustained global transmission within 18 months.** Current confirmed outbreaks, including the Bundibugyo Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda (declared a PHEIC but not a pandemic emergency, with several thousand cases regionally contained) and various mpox, dengue, and avian influenza events, have not shown efficient human-to-human spread beyond affected areas. Official WHO and CDC monitoring, bolstered by the 2025 Pandemic Agreement, IHR amendments, and over $1 billion in Pandemic Fund support, has enabled faster detection and response than in prior decades. Historical annual zoonotic spillover risk estimates of 2.5–3.3% for COVID-scale events further support limited near-term probability, though model uncertainty and evolving environmental drivers warrant ongoing vigilance ahead of routine surveillance updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
是
The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
市場開放時間： Aug 13, 2026, 2:08 PM ET
The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
**Trader consensus on an 82% implied probability of no new pandemic before 2028 reflects strengthened post-COVID surveillance, rapid containment of recent outbreaks, and the low baseline likelihood of a novel pathogen achieving sustained global transmission within 18 months.** Current confirmed outbreaks, including the Bundibugyo Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda (declared a PHEIC but not a pandemic emergency, with several thousand cases regionally contained) and various mpox, dengue, and avian influenza events, have not shown efficient human-to-human spread beyond affected areas. Official WHO and CDC monitoring, bolstered by the 2025 Pandemic Agreement, IHR amendments, and over $1 billion in Pandemic Fund support, has enabled faster detection and response than in prior decades. Historical annual zoonotic spillover risk estimates of 2.5–3.3% for COVID-scale events further support limited near-term probability, though model uncertainty and evolving environmental drivers warrant ongoing vigilance ahead of routine surveillance updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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