Persistent drought conditions across central and eastern Europe since May 2026 have kept Danube flows well below seasonal norms, with the Budapest gauge at 79 cm on September 20—below the 93 cm Low Water Level threshold used for market resolution. Record lows earlier in the summer disrupted navigation, hydropower, and cruises, and forecasts show precipitation 88% below normal in key catchments over the next 16 days. Recent modest rises at Budapest reflect localized rain but have not approached normal levels, leaving the September window at just 2.6%. Traders assign October the highest probability at 63% due to historical autumn variability and potential cooling-driven rebounds, while the 36.4% chance of no recovery by November 1 reflects the risk of prolonged dry patterns extending low-water impacts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026年10月1日至31日 63%
到2026年11月1日仍未恢復 36.4%
2026年9月15日－30日 2.6%
$89,625 交易量
$89,625 交易量
2026-09-30
2026年9月15日－30日
3%
2026年10月1日至31日
63%
到2026年11月1日仍未恢復
36%
2026年10月1日至31日 63%
到2026年11月1日仍未恢復 36.4%
2026年9月15日－30日 2.6%
$89,625 交易量
$89,625 交易量
2026-09-30
2026年9月15日－30日
$33,096 交易量
3%
2026年10月1日至31日
$16,474 交易量
63%
到2026年11月1日仍未恢復
$17,135 交易量
36%
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent drought conditions across central and eastern Europe since May 2026 have kept Danube flows well below seasonal norms, with the Budapest gauge at 79 cm on September 20—below the 93 cm Low Water Level threshold used for market resolution. Record lows earlier in the summer disrupted navigation, hydropower, and cruises, and forecasts show precipitation 88% below normal in key catchments over the next 16 days. Recent modest rises at Budapest reflect localized rain but have not approached normal levels, leaving the September window at just 2.6%. Traders assign October the highest probability at 63% due to historical autumn variability and potential cooling-driven rebounds, while the 36.4% chance of no recovery by November 1 reflects the risk of prolonged dry patterns extending low-water impacts.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ET
交易量
$89,625結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ETThis market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent drought conditions across central and eastern Europe since May 2026 have kept Danube flows well below seasonal norms, with the Budapest gauge at 79 cm on September 20—below the 93 cm Low Water Level threshold used for market resolution. Record lows earlier in the summer disrupted navigation, hydropower, and cruises, and forecasts show precipitation 88% below normal in key catchments over the next 16 days. Recent modest rises at Budapest reflect localized rain but have not approached normal levels, leaving the September window at just 2.6%. Traders assign October the highest probability at 63% due to historical autumn variability and potential cooling-driven rebounds, while the 36.4% chance of no recovery by November 1 reflects the risk of prolonged dry patterns extending low-water impacts.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$89,625結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ETPersistent drought conditions across central and eastern Europe since May 2026 have kept Danube flows well below seasonal norms, with the Budapest gauge at 79 cm on September 20—below the 93 cm Low Water Level threshold used for market resolution. Record lows earlier in the summer disrupted navigation, hydropower, and cruises, and forecasts show precipitation 88% below normal in key catchments over the next 16 days. Recent modest rises at Budapest reflect localized rain but have not approached normal levels, leaving the September window at just 2.6%. Traders assign October the highest probability at 63% due to historical autumn variability and potential cooling-driven rebounds, while the 36.4% chance of no recovery by November 1 reflects the risk of prolonged dry patterns extending low-water impacts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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