The unusually quiet 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with zero hurricanes formed as of mid-September amid strong El Niño-driven wind shear, forms the main driver behind the 92% market-implied odds against a Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA’s updated outlook projects just 0-2 major hurricanes for the full season, well below the 1991-2020 average of three, while historical records show Category 4+ strikes on the continental U.S. occur roughly once every 7-10 years. Remaining late-season activity is expected to stay limited through November, with official National Hurricane Center guidance emphasizing suppressed intensification potential. Late-forming systems or rapid model shifts could still introduce modest uncertainty before year-end resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
9% 機率
$343,898 交易量
$343,898 交易量
2026-12-31
是
9% 機率
$343,898 交易量
$343,898 交易量
2026-12-31
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The unusually quiet 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with zero hurricanes formed as of mid-September amid strong El Niño-driven wind shear, forms the main driver behind the 92% market-implied odds against a Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA’s updated outlook projects just 0-2 major hurricanes for the full season, well below the 1991-2020 average of three, while historical records show Category 4+ strikes on the continental U.S. occur roughly once every 7-10 years. Remaining late-season activity is expected to stay limited through November, with official National Hurricane Center guidance emphasizing suppressed intensification potential. Late-forming systems or rapid model shifts could still introduce modest uncertainty before year-end resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
市場開放時間： Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
交易量
$343,898結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETFor the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The unusually quiet 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with zero hurricanes formed as of mid-September amid strong El Niño-driven wind shear, forms the main driver behind the 92% market-implied odds against a Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA’s updated outlook projects just 0-2 major hurricanes for the full season, well below the 1991-2020 average of three, while historical records show Category 4+ strikes on the continental U.S. occur roughly once every 7-10 years. Remaining late-season activity is expected to stay limited through November, with official National Hurricane Center guidance emphasizing suppressed intensification potential. Late-forming systems or rapid model shifts could still introduce modest uncertainty before year-end resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
交易量
$343,898結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETThe unusually quiet 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with zero hurricanes formed as of mid-September amid strong El Niño-driven wind shear, forms the main driver behind the 92% market-implied odds against a Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA’s updated outlook projects just 0-2 major hurricanes for the full season, well below the 1991-2020 average of three, while historical records show Category 4+ strikes on the continental U.S. occur roughly once every 7-10 years. Remaining late-season activity is expected to stay limited through November, with official National Hurricane Center guidance emphasizing suppressed intensification potential. Late-forming systems or rapid model shifts could still introduce modest uncertainty before year-end resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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