Anthropic leads market-implied odds for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap at 60.4% due to its confidential S-1 filing in June and targeted late-September or October listing at a potential $1.5–2 trillion valuation, supported by annualized revenue surging above $47 billion and a recent private round at $965 billion. SpaceX’s completed June IPO at $1.77 trillion (first-day market cap near $2.1 trillion) accounts for its 38.5% probability as the current record holder, though Anthropic’s scale could eclipse it. xAI’s 25.5% odds reflect its February acquisition by SpaceX, folding its value into the listed entity rather than enabling a standalone debut, while OpenAI’s lower 1.8% odds align with its more modest ~$1 trillion target and later timeline. Trader sentiment reflects these filing dates, revenue trajectories, and integration events as key swing factors.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 60.5%
SpaceX 39%
OpenAI 1.9%
Discord <1%
$5,968,640 交易量
$5,968,640 交易量
2026-12-30
Anthropic
61%
SpaceX
39%
OpenAI
2%
Discord
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
Stripe
<1%
Kraken
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
Waymo
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
Databricks
<1%
Anthropic 60.5%
SpaceX 39%
OpenAI 1.9%
Discord <1%
$5,968,640 交易量
$5,968,640 交易量
2026-12-30
Anthropic
$1,096,685 交易量
61%
SpaceX
$872,773 交易量
39%
OpenAI
$552,769 交易量
2%
Discord
$182,734 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$213,746 交易量
<1%
Stripe
$134,177 交易量
<1%
Kraken
$656,964 交易量
<1%
SHEIN
$583,615 交易量
<1%
Waymo
$318,150 交易量
<1%
Revolut
$633,687 交易量
<1%
Perplexity AI
$108,136 交易量
<1%
Databricks
$615,205 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Anthropic leads market-implied odds for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap at 60.4% due to its confidential S-1 filing in June and targeted late-September or October listing at a potential $1.5–2 trillion valuation, supported by annualized revenue surging above $47 billion and a recent private round at $965 billion. SpaceX’s completed June IPO at $1.77 trillion (first-day market cap near $2.1 trillion) accounts for its 38.5% probability as the current record holder, though Anthropic’s scale could eclipse it. xAI’s 25.5% odds reflect its February acquisition by SpaceX, folding its value into the listed entity rather than enabling a standalone debut, while OpenAI’s lower 1.8% odds align with its more modest ~$1 trillion target and later timeline. Trader sentiment reflects these filing dates, revenue trajectories, and integration events as key swing factors.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市場開放時間： Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
交易量
$5,968,640結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETThis market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Anthropic leads market-implied odds for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap at 60.4% due to its confidential S-1 filing in June and targeted late-September or October listing at a potential $1.5–2 trillion valuation, supported by annualized revenue surging above $47 billion and a recent private round at $965 billion. SpaceX’s completed June IPO at $1.77 trillion (first-day market cap near $2.1 trillion) accounts for its 38.5% probability as the current record holder, though Anthropic’s scale could eclipse it. xAI’s 25.5% odds reflect its February acquisition by SpaceX, folding its value into the listed entity rather than enabling a standalone debut, while OpenAI’s lower 1.8% odds align with its more modest ~$1 trillion target and later timeline. Trader sentiment reflects these filing dates, revenue trajectories, and integration events as key swing factors.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$5,968,640結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETAnthropic leads market-implied odds for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap at 60.4% due to its confidential S-1 filing in June and targeted late-September or October listing at a potential $1.5–2 trillion valuation, supported by annualized revenue surging above $47 billion and a recent private round at $965 billion. SpaceX’s completed June IPO at $1.77 trillion (first-day market cap near $2.1 trillion) accounts for its 38.5% probability as the current record holder, though Anthropic’s scale could eclipse it. xAI’s 25.5% odds reflect its February acquisition by SpaceX, folding its value into the listed entity rather than enabling a standalone debut, while OpenAI’s lower 1.8% odds align with its more modest ~$1 trillion target and later timeline. Trader sentiment reflects these filing dates, revenue trajectories, and integration events as key swing factors.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions