Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity over Luzon drives the close contest between 30°C and 31°C for Manila’s September 11 high, with both outcomes at 25.5% implied probability. Cloud cover and scattered to occasional rains limit solar heating and promote evaporative cooling, keeping daytime maxima near seasonal norms of 29–30°C. PAGASA forecasts light-to-moderate southwest winds, high humidity above 80%, and thunderstorm chances that further cap temperature peaks. Model guidance shows minor spread in cloud timing and rainfall intensity, creating the tight split between the two leading outcomes while lower probabilities attach to 29°C or 32°C+ if monsoon effects weaken or strengthen unexpectedly.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月11日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
9月11日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
30°C 26%
31°C 26%
29°C 16%
32°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-09-11
24°C或以下
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
3%
28°C
8%
29°C
16%
30°C
26%
31°C
26%
32°C
14%
33°C
7%
34°C或以上
4%
30°C 26%
31°C 26%
29°C 16%
32°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-09-11
24°C或以下
$221 交易量
<1%
25°C
$354 交易量
1%
26°C
$20 交易量
2%
27°C
$97 交易量
3%
28°C
$52 交易量
8%
29°C
$151 交易量
16%
30°C
$625 交易量
26%
31°C
$148 交易量
26%
32°C
$152 交易量
14%
33°C
$35 交易量
7%
34°C或以上
$46 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity over Luzon drives the close contest between 30°C and 31°C for Manila’s September 11 high, with both outcomes at 25.5% implied probability. Cloud cover and scattered to occasional rains limit solar heating and promote evaporative cooling, keeping daytime maxima near seasonal norms of 29–30°C. PAGASA forecasts light-to-moderate southwest winds, high humidity above 80%, and thunderstorm chances that further cap temperature peaks. Model guidance shows minor spread in cloud timing and rainfall intensity, creating the tight split between the two leading outcomes while lower probabilities attach to 29°C or 32°C+ if monsoon effects weaken or strengthen unexpectedly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 9, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
交易量
$1,902結束日期
2026-09-11市場開放時間
Sep 9, 2026, 12:59 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity over Luzon drives the close contest between 30°C and 31°C for Manila’s September 11 high, with both outcomes at 25.5% implied probability. Cloud cover and scattered to occasional rains limit solar heating and promote evaporative cooling, keeping daytime maxima near seasonal norms of 29–30°C. PAGASA forecasts light-to-moderate southwest winds, high humidity above 80%, and thunderstorm chances that further cap temperature peaks. Model guidance shows minor spread in cloud timing and rainfall intensity, creating the tight split between the two leading outcomes while lower probabilities attach to 29°C or 32°C+ if monsoon effects weaken or strengthen unexpectedly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,902結束日期
2026-09-11市場開放時間
Sep 9, 2026, 12:59 AM ETPersistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity over Luzon drives the close contest between 30°C and 31°C for Manila’s September 11 high, with both outcomes at 25.5% implied probability. Cloud cover and scattered to occasional rains limit solar heating and promote evaporative cooling, keeping daytime maxima near seasonal norms of 29–30°C. PAGASA forecasts light-to-moderate southwest winds, high humidity above 80%, and thunderstorm chances that further cap temperature peaks. Model guidance shows minor spread in cloud timing and rainfall intensity, creating the tight split between the two leading outcomes while lower probabilities attach to 29°C or 32°C+ if monsoon effects weaken or strengthen unexpectedly.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions