Recent AfD gains in eastern state elections, including a near-44% share in Saxony-Anhalt that crushed the CDU, have exposed deep dissatisfaction with Merz’s coalition and its reform agenda on pensions, spending, and migration. His personal approval ratings have hit record lows, fueling coalition friction with the SPD and internal CDU unease ahead of further regional votes in September 2026. Nevertheless, the next federal election remains scheduled for 2029, no-confidence mechanisms or coalition collapse appear unlikely in the near term, and Merz has publicly rejected resignation calls while pledging to continue governing. Traders therefore assign an 84.5% implied probability that he remains chancellor through the end of 2026, viewing short-term leadership change as structurally difficult despite the pressure.