Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from California's June 2026 top-two primary in the 46th District with over 51 percent of the vote, far ahead of Republican David Pan at roughly 33 percent, with the remaining Democratic votes split among challengers. All major forecasters rate the November general election as safe or solid Democratic, consistent with Correa's 2024 performance and the district's composition in Orange County. Correa's substantial campaign resources and established local profile further support trader consensus around his commanding position. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the structural advantages of incumbency and partisan lean in the final weeks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$24,514 交易量
$24,514 交易量
2026-11-02
Lou Correa（民主黨）
95%
潘正義（共和黨）
6%
$24,514 交易量
$24,514 交易量
2026-11-02
Lou Correa（民主黨）
$4,707 交易量
95%
潘正義（共和黨）
$19,806 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from California's June 2026 top-two primary in the 46th District with over 51 percent of the vote, far ahead of Republican David Pan at roughly 33 percent, with the remaining Democratic votes split among challengers. All major forecasters rate the November general election as safe or solid Democratic, consistent with Correa's 2024 performance and the district's composition in Orange County. Correa's substantial campaign resources and established local profile further support trader consensus around his commanding position. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the structural advantages of incumbency and partisan lean in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$24,514結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from California's June 2026 top-two primary in the 46th District with over 51 percent of the vote, far ahead of Republican David Pan at roughly 33 percent, with the remaining Democratic votes split among challengers. All major forecasters rate the November general election as safe or solid Democratic, consistent with Correa's 2024 performance and the district's composition in Orange County. Correa's substantial campaign resources and established local profile further support trader consensus around his commanding position. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the structural advantages of incumbency and partisan lean in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$24,514結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETIncumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from California's June 2026 top-two primary in the 46th District with over 51 percent of the vote, far ahead of Republican David Pan at roughly 33 percent, with the remaining Democratic votes split among challengers. All major forecasters rate the November general election as safe or solid Democratic, consistent with Correa's 2024 performance and the district's composition in Orange County. Correa's substantial campaign resources and established local profile further support trader consensus around his commanding position. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the structural advantages of incumbency and partisan lean in the final weeks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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