Derek Tran, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 53.8% of the vote and faces Republican Chuong Vo in the November 3 general election for California's 45th House district. Tran holds a substantial fundraising edge, exceeding $4 million raised compared to Vo's roughly $500,000, and benefits from a Democratic voter registration advantage in the district spanning parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties. Independent forecasters rate the race as likely or lean Democratic. These factors, combined with the absence of major late-cycle shifts, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the market prices. The general election remains several weeks away, leaving room for standard campaign dynamics to influence final turnout and margins.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$35,629 交易量
$35,629 交易量
2026-11-02
Derek Tran（民主黨）
90%
Chuong Vo（共和黨）
8%
$35,629 交易量
$35,629 交易量
2026-11-02
Derek Tran（民主黨）
$19,878 交易量
90%
Chuong Vo（共和黨）
$15,751 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Derek Tran, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 53.8% of the vote and faces Republican Chuong Vo in the November 3 general election for California's 45th House district. Tran holds a substantial fundraising edge, exceeding $4 million raised compared to Vo's roughly $500,000, and benefits from a Democratic voter registration advantage in the district spanning parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties. Independent forecasters rate the race as likely or lean Democratic. These factors, combined with the absence of major late-cycle shifts, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the market prices. The general election remains several weeks away, leaving room for standard campaign dynamics to influence final turnout and margins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$35,629結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Derek Tran, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 53.8% of the vote and faces Republican Chuong Vo in the November 3 general election for California's 45th House district. Tran holds a substantial fundraising edge, exceeding $4 million raised compared to Vo's roughly $500,000, and benefits from a Democratic voter registration advantage in the district spanning parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties. Independent forecasters rate the race as likely or lean Democratic. These factors, combined with the absence of major late-cycle shifts, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the market prices. The general election remains several weeks away, leaving room for standard campaign dynamics to influence final turnout and margins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$35,629結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETDerek Tran, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 53.8% of the vote and faces Republican Chuong Vo in the November 3 general election for California's 45th House district. Tran holds a substantial fundraising edge, exceeding $4 million raised compared to Vo's roughly $500,000, and benefits from a Democratic voter registration advantage in the district spanning parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties. Independent forecasters rate the race as likely or lean Democratic. These factors, combined with the absence of major late-cycle shifts, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the market prices. The general election remains several weeks away, leaving room for standard campaign dynamics to influence final turnout and margins.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions