No known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to continuous NASA CNEOS Sentry monitoring and ESA risk assessments. Recent small bolides, including 2026 JN4 and 2026 RW1, registered well below the energy threshold on the JPL Fireball database, consistent with the pattern of meter-scale impactors that typically yield sub-kiloton events. With roughly three-quarters of the year elapsed without a qualifying detection and no new high-risk objects identified, trader consensus has settled on the elevated No probability. Updated orbital refinements continue to lower residual uncertainty, while annual meteor showers remain too diffuse to reach the 5 kt criterion.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
27% 機率
$314,144 交易量
$314,144 交易量
2027-02-28
是
27% 機率
$314,144 交易量
$314,144 交易量
2027-02-28
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to continuous NASA CNEOS Sentry monitoring and ESA risk assessments. Recent small bolides, including 2026 JN4 and 2026 RW1, registered well below the energy threshold on the JPL Fireball database, consistent with the pattern of meter-scale impactors that typically yield sub-kiloton events. With roughly three-quarters of the year elapsed without a qualifying detection and no new high-risk objects identified, trader consensus has settled on the elevated No probability. Updated orbital refinements continue to lower residual uncertainty, while annual meteor showers remain too diffuse to reach the 5 kt criterion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
交易量
$314,144結束日期
2027-03-01市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to continuous NASA CNEOS Sentry monitoring and ESA risk assessments. Recent small bolides, including 2026 JN4 and 2026 RW1, registered well below the energy threshold on the JPL Fireball database, consistent with the pattern of meter-scale impactors that typically yield sub-kiloton events. With roughly three-quarters of the year elapsed without a qualifying detection and no new high-risk objects identified, trader consensus has settled on the elevated No probability. Updated orbital refinements continue to lower residual uncertainty, while annual meteor showers remain too diffuse to reach the 5 kt criterion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$314,144結束日期
2027-03-01市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETNo known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to continuous NASA CNEOS Sentry monitoring and ESA risk assessments. Recent small bolides, including 2026 JN4 and 2026 RW1, registered well below the energy threshold on the JPL Fireball database, consistent with the pattern of meter-scale impactors that typically yield sub-kiloton events. With roughly three-quarters of the year elapsed without a qualifying detection and no new high-risk objects identified, trader consensus has settled on the elevated No probability. Updated orbital refinements continue to lower residual uncertainty, while annual meteor showers remain too diffuse to reach the 5 kt criterion.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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