**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 95% reflects the extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes and the brief remaining window through December 31, 2026.** USGS historical records show only a handful of such events since 1900, with recurrence intervals on major subduction zones typically spanning decades to centuries; the most recent confirmed M9+ was the 2011 Tohoku event, while 2025–2026 activity has included an 8.8 off Kamchatka and several M7+ quakes but nothing approaching the threshold. Megathrust ruptures capable of M9+ require simultaneous failure across hundreds of kilometers of locked fault, a process not indicated by current GNSS strain data or official monitoring. With roughly 3.5 months left, the base rate strongly supports the market-implied odds. Realistic tail risks include an unforeseen cascade on high-strain segments such as Cascadia or Nankai, where paleoseismic evidence shows past full-margin events, though model consensus and observational data place such outcomes well below 10% probability in this compressed timeframe.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
5% 機率
$315,215 交易量
$315,215 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 機率
$315,215 交易量
$315,215 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 95% reflects the extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes and the brief remaining window through December 31, 2026.** USGS historical records show only a handful of such events since 1900, with recurrence intervals on major subduction zones typically spanning decades to centuries; the most recent confirmed M9+ was the 2011 Tohoku event, while 2025–2026 activity has included an 8.8 off Kamchatka and several M7+ quakes but nothing approaching the threshold. Megathrust ruptures capable of M9+ require simultaneous failure across hundreds of kilometers of locked fault, a process not indicated by current GNSS strain data or official monitoring. With roughly 3.5 months left, the base rate strongly supports the market-implied odds. Realistic tail risks include an unforeseen cascade on high-strain segments such as Cascadia or Nankai, where paleoseismic evidence shows past full-margin events, though model consensus and observational data place such outcomes well below 10% probability in this compressed timeframe.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市場開放時間： Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
交易量
$315,215結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 95% reflects the extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes and the brief remaining window through December 31, 2026.** USGS historical records show only a handful of such events since 1900, with recurrence intervals on major subduction zones typically spanning decades to centuries; the most recent confirmed M9+ was the 2011 Tohoku event, while 2025–2026 activity has included an 8.8 off Kamchatka and several M7+ quakes but nothing approaching the threshold. Megathrust ruptures capable of M9+ require simultaneous failure across hundreds of kilometers of locked fault, a process not indicated by current GNSS strain data or official monitoring. With roughly 3.5 months left, the base rate strongly supports the market-implied odds. Realistic tail risks include an unforeseen cascade on high-strain segments such as Cascadia or Nankai, where paleoseismic evidence shows past full-margin events, though model consensus and observational data place such outcomes well below 10% probability in this compressed timeframe.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$315,215結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 95% reflects the extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes and the brief remaining window through December 31, 2026.** USGS historical records show only a handful of such events since 1900, with recurrence intervals on major subduction zones typically spanning decades to centuries; the most recent confirmed M9+ was the 2011 Tohoku event, while 2025–2026 activity has included an 8.8 off Kamchatka and several M7+ quakes but nothing approaching the threshold. Megathrust ruptures capable of M9+ require simultaneous failure across hundreds of kilometers of locked fault, a process not indicated by current GNSS strain data or official monitoring. With roughly 3.5 months left, the base rate strongly supports the market-implied odds. Realistic tail risks include an unforeseen cascade on high-strain segments such as Cascadia or Nankai, where paleoseismic evidence shows past full-margin events, though model consensus and observational data place such outcomes well below 10% probability in this compressed timeframe.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions