The Islamic Republic has demonstrated institutional resilience following the February 2026 death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli strikes, with rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, activation of constitutional mechanisms, and continuity in security forces despite economic strain and factional tensions between hard-line military elements and figures like President Pezeshkian. Power has consolidated around the IRGC and security apparatus amid ongoing regional confrontations and domestic pressures, with no verified large-scale defections or coordinated collapse signals in recent months. Trader consensus on the low probability of regime fall by September 30 reflects this track record of endurance through shocks. Unlikely near-term catalysts that could still shift dynamics include an unforeseen internal security breakdown, decisive elite realignment, or sudden escalation triggering widespread unrest before the deadline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật<1% khả năng
$2,418,632 KL.
$2,418,632 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
<1% khả năng
$2,418,632 KL.
$2,418,632 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic has demonstrated institutional resilience following the February 2026 death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli strikes, with rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, activation of constitutional mechanisms, and continuity in security forces despite economic strain and factional tensions between hard-line military elements and figures like President Pezeshkian. Power has consolidated around the IRGC and security apparatus amid ongoing regional confrontations and domestic pressures, with no verified large-scale defections or coordinated collapse signals in recent months. Trader consensus on the low probability of regime fall by September 30 reflects this track record of endurance through shocks. Unlikely near-term catalysts that could still shift dynamics include an unforeseen internal security breakdown, decisive elite realignment, or sudden escalation triggering widespread unrest before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,418,632Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic has demonstrated institutional resilience following the February 2026 death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli strikes, with rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, activation of constitutional mechanisms, and continuity in security forces despite economic strain and factional tensions between hard-line military elements and figures like President Pezeshkian. Power has consolidated around the IRGC and security apparatus amid ongoing regional confrontations and domestic pressures, with no verified large-scale defections or coordinated collapse signals in recent months. Trader consensus on the low probability of regime fall by September 30 reflects this track record of endurance through shocks. Unlikely near-term catalysts that could still shift dynamics include an unforeseen internal security breakdown, decisive elite realignment, or sudden escalation triggering widespread unrest before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$2,418,632Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic has demonstrated institutional resilience following the February 2026 death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli strikes, with rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, activation of constitutional mechanisms, and continuity in security forces despite economic strain and factional tensions between hard-line military elements and figures like President Pezeshkian. Power has consolidated around the IRGC and security apparatus amid ongoing regional confrontations and domestic pressures, with no verified large-scale defections or coordinated collapse signals in recent months. Trader consensus on the low probability of regime fall by September 30 reflects this track record of endurance through shocks. Unlikely near-term catalysts that could still shift dynamics include an unforeseen internal security breakdown, decisive elite realignment, or sudden escalation triggering widespread unrest before the deadline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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