Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection as supreme leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following Ali Khamenei’s assassination in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike, established a baseline of institutional continuity despite wartime disruptions and an interim council. His prolonged absence from public view, linked to injuries sustained in the strikes, has prompted questions about decision-making authority, yet the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has consolidated influence to maintain regime stability and back hardline policies. No verified reports of resignation, removal, or acute health decline have emerged in recent months, keeping near-term change probabilities low in trader pricing. Geopolitical pressures, including sanctions, naval tensions, and potential diplomatic openings or escalations through late 2026, remain the main variables that could alter the outlook.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$25,149,119 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
2%
October 31
6%
November 30
9%
Ngày 31 tháng 12
14%
June 30, 2027
28%
$25,149,119 KL.
September 30
$1,028,671 KL.
2%
October 31
$71,760 KL.
6%
November 30
$36,648 KL.
9%
Ngày 31 tháng 12
$4,434,373 KL.
14%
June 30, 2027
$290,529 KL.
28%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection as supreme leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following Ali Khamenei’s assassination in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike, established a baseline of institutional continuity despite wartime disruptions and an interim council. His prolonged absence from public view, linked to injuries sustained in the strikes, has prompted questions about decision-making authority, yet the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has consolidated influence to maintain regime stability and back hardline policies. No verified reports of resignation, removal, or acute health decline have emerged in recent months, keeping near-term change probabilities low in trader pricing. Geopolitical pressures, including sanctions, naval tensions, and potential diplomatic openings or escalations through late 2026, remain the main variables that could alter the outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ET
Khối lượng
$25,149,119Ngày kết thúc
Jul 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection as supreme leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following Ali Khamenei’s assassination in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike, established a baseline of institutional continuity despite wartime disruptions and an interim council. His prolonged absence from public view, linked to injuries sustained in the strikes, has prompted questions about decision-making authority, yet the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has consolidated influence to maintain regime stability and back hardline policies. No verified reports of resignation, removal, or acute health decline have emerged in recent months, keeping near-term change probabilities low in trader pricing. Geopolitical pressures, including sanctions, naval tensions, and potential diplomatic openings or escalations through late 2026, remain the main variables that could alter the outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$25,149,119Ngày kết thúc
Jul 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection as supreme leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following Ali Khamenei’s assassination in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike, established a baseline of institutional continuity despite wartime disruptions and an interim council. His prolonged absence from public view, linked to injuries sustained in the strikes, has prompted questions about decision-making authority, yet the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has consolidated influence to maintain regime stability and back hardline policies. No verified reports of resignation, removal, or acute health decline have emerged in recent months, keeping near-term change probabilities low in trader pricing. Geopolitical pressures, including sanctions, naval tensions, and potential diplomatic openings or escalations through late 2026, remain the main variables that could alter the outlook.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp