The Iranian regime's resilience amid sustained US and Israeli military strikes, naval blockades, and sanctions since early 2026 underpins traders' 93.5% implied probability against collapse before 2027. Recent developments include Iran's September 2026 conditions for ending hostilities conveyed through Qatari mediators, parliamentary statements reaffirming control over the Strait of Hormuz, and leadership consolidation under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei despite his limited public visibility. Internal factional tensions between hard-line security elements and President Pezeshkian have not produced institutional breakdown, while the absence of unified opposition leadership or coordinated transition plans limits escalation risks. These factors, alongside the regime's history of adapting to external pressure without core structural change, shape the current market consensus on continuity through the resolution window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiệu chế độ Iran có sụp đổ trước năm 2027?
Liệu chế độ Iran có sụp đổ trước năm 2027?
Có
7% khả năng
$26,182,269 KL.
$26,182,269 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
7% khả năng
$26,182,269 KL.
$26,182,269 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's resilience amid sustained US and Israeli military strikes, naval blockades, and sanctions since early 2026 underpins traders' 93.5% implied probability against collapse before 2027. Recent developments include Iran's September 2026 conditions for ending hostilities conveyed through Qatari mediators, parliamentary statements reaffirming control over the Strait of Hormuz, and leadership consolidation under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei despite his limited public visibility. Internal factional tensions between hard-line security elements and President Pezeshkian have not produced institutional breakdown, while the absence of unified opposition leadership or coordinated transition plans limits escalation risks. These factors, alongside the regime's history of adapting to external pressure without core structural change, shape the current market consensus on continuity through the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Khối lượng
$26,182,269Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's resilience amid sustained US and Israeli military strikes, naval blockades, and sanctions since early 2026 underpins traders' 93.5% implied probability against collapse before 2027. Recent developments include Iran's September 2026 conditions for ending hostilities conveyed through Qatari mediators, parliamentary statements reaffirming control over the Strait of Hormuz, and leadership consolidation under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei despite his limited public visibility. Internal factional tensions between hard-line security elements and President Pezeshkian have not produced institutional breakdown, while the absence of unified opposition leadership or coordinated transition plans limits escalation risks. These factors, alongside the regime's history of adapting to external pressure without core structural change, shape the current market consensus on continuity through the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$26,182,269Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's resilience amid sustained US and Israeli military strikes, naval blockades, and sanctions since early 2026 underpins traders' 93.5% implied probability against collapse before 2027. Recent developments include Iran's September 2026 conditions for ending hostilities conveyed through Qatari mediators, parliamentary statements reaffirming control over the Strait of Hormuz, and leadership consolidation under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei despite his limited public visibility. Internal factional tensions between hard-line security elements and President Pezeshkian have not produced institutional breakdown, while the absence of unified opposition leadership or coordinated transition plans limits escalation risks. These factors, alongside the regime's history of adapting to external pressure without core structural change, shape the current market consensus on continuity through the resolution window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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