**Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the September 10–11 seizure of Mokha port, the Hanish Islands, and Perim Island at the Bab el-Mandeb, have intensified security risks and suppressed vessel traffic through the strait.** These advances, coupled with renewed attacks on Saudi-linked shipping following the July 2026 maritime embargo declaration, have driven selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and reduced compliant transits, with recent Kpler and AIS data showing daily averages of roughly 20–28 vessels versus pre-crisis norms near 60–70. Market-implied odds heavily favor the <170 outcome at 64.5% because weekly aggregates for mid-September periods have consistently fallen into the low- to mid-100s amid elevated war-risk premiums and avoidance by major operators. Modest containership recoveries via Suez have not offset the broader contraction in tanker and bulk movements, leaving volumes vulnerable to further incidents near resolution.