**Strong labor market conditions and sticky inflation readings have driven Polymarket traders to assign an 78% implied probability to an overheating outcome for the U.S. economy at year-end 2026.** August 2026 data showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% with nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000, while headline CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core CPI at 2.4%. The September FOMC projections reinforced this view by lifting the median 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 3.7% and the year-end federal funds rate path, reflecting persistent price pressures amid resilient demand and supply-side factors such as energy prices. With unemployment firmly below the 5.0% threshold and inflation likely to remain near or above 3.5% through December, the market-implied odds heavily favor overheating over a soft landing (21.5%), while slack or stagflation scenarios remain near zero given the absence of meaningful labor market deterioration. Upcoming CPI and employment releases in October and November represent the final data points that could shift these probabilities before year-end resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtOverheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 78%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) <1%
$88,649 KL.
$88,649 KL.
Jan 30, 2027
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
78%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
<1%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
<1%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 78%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) <1%
$88,649 KL.
$88,649 KL.
Jan 30, 2027
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$30,104 KL.
78%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$41,074 KL.
22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$4,609 KL.
<1%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$12,863 KL.
<1%
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.**Strong labor market conditions and sticky inflation readings have driven Polymarket traders to assign an 78% implied probability to an overheating outcome for the U.S. economy at year-end 2026.** August 2026 data showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% with nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000, while headline CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core CPI at 2.4%. The September FOMC projections reinforced this view by lifting the median 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 3.7% and the year-end federal funds rate path, reflecting persistent price pressures amid resilient demand and supply-side factors such as energy prices.
With unemployment firmly below the 5.0% threshold and inflation likely to remain near or above 3.5% through December, the market-implied odds heavily favor overheating over a soft landing (21.5%), while slack or stagflation scenarios remain near zero given the absence of meaningful labor market deterioration. Upcoming CPI and employment releases in October and November represent the final data points that could shift these probabilities before year-end resolution.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Thị trường mở: Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$88,649Ngày kết thúc
Jan 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.**Strong labor market conditions and sticky inflation readings have driven Polymarket traders to assign an 78% implied probability to an overheating outcome for the U.S. economy at year-end 2026.** August 2026 data showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% with nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000, while headline CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core CPI at 2.4%. The September FOMC projections reinforced this view by lifting the median 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 3.7% and the year-end federal funds rate path, reflecting persistent price pressures amid resilient demand and supply-side factors such as energy prices.
With unemployment firmly below the 5.0% threshold and inflation likely to remain near or above 3.5% through December, the market-implied odds heavily favor overheating over a soft landing (21.5%), while slack or stagflation scenarios remain near zero given the absence of meaningful labor market deterioration. Upcoming CPI and employment releases in October and November represent the final data points that could shift these probabilities before year-end resolution.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Khối lượng
$88,649Ngày kết thúc
Jan 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Strong labor market conditions and sticky inflation readings have driven Polymarket traders to assign an 78% implied probability to an overheating outcome for the U.S. economy at year-end 2026.** August 2026 data showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% with nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000, while headline CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core CPI at 2.4%. The September FOMC projections reinforced this view by lifting the median 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 3.7% and the year-end federal funds rate path, reflecting persistent price pressures amid resilient demand and supply-side factors such as energy prices. With unemployment firmly below the 5.0% threshold and inflation likely to remain near or above 3.5% through December, the market-implied odds heavily favor overheating over a soft landing (21.5%), while slack or stagflation scenarios remain near zero given the absence of meaningful labor market deterioration. Upcoming CPI and employment releases in October and November represent the final data points that could shift these probabilities before year-end resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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