Recent August 2026 core CPI data at 2.4% year-over-year, down from 2.5% in July, combined with the Cleveland Fed nowcast near 2.39% for September, has concentrated trader-implied probabilities on the 2.3–2.5% range. Persistent shelter and services inflation continue to offset cooling goods prices, while steady labor-market conditions and moderating wage growth limit downside risks. The distribution reflects uncertainty around month-to-month volatility and rounding effects ahead of the mid-October BLS release, with markets pricing in gradual disinflation consistent with the post-2022 trend but still above the Fed’s 2% target.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật2.4% 42%
2.5% 25%
2.3% 21%
2.2% 7%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 14, 2026
≤2.0%
5%
2.1%
6%
2.2%
7%
2.3%
21%
2.4%
42%
2.5%
25%
2.6%
7%
2.7%
5%
2.8%
5%
≥2.9%
4%
2.4% 42%
2.5% 25%
2.3% 21%
2.2% 7%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 14, 2026
≤2.0%
$142 KL.
5%
2.1%
$142 KL.
6%
2.2%
$162 KL.
7%
2.3%
$453 KL.
21%
2.4%
$1,342 KL.
42%
2.5%
$285 KL.
25%
2.6%
$282 KL.
7%
2.7%
$182 KL.
5%
2.8%
$142 KL.
5%
≥2.9%
$349 KL.
4%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August 2026 core CPI data at 2.4% year-over-year, down from 2.5% in July, combined with the Cleveland Fed nowcast near 2.39% for September, has concentrated trader-implied probabilities on the 2.3–2.5% range. Persistent shelter and services inflation continue to offset cooling goods prices, while steady labor-market conditions and moderating wage growth limit downside risks. The distribution reflects uncertainty around month-to-month volatility and rounding effects ahead of the mid-October BLS release, with markets pricing in gradual disinflation consistent with the post-2022 trend but still above the Fed’s 2% target.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Thị trường mở: Sep 11, 2026, 11:29 AM ET
Khối lượng
$3,482Ngày kết thúc
Oct 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 11, 2026, 11:29 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August 2026 core CPI data at 2.4% year-over-year, down from 2.5% in July, combined with the Cleveland Fed nowcast near 2.39% for September, has concentrated trader-implied probabilities on the 2.3–2.5% range. Persistent shelter and services inflation continue to offset cooling goods prices, while steady labor-market conditions and moderating wage growth limit downside risks. The distribution reflects uncertainty around month-to-month volatility and rounding effects ahead of the mid-October BLS release, with markets pricing in gradual disinflation consistent with the post-2022 trend but still above the Fed’s 2% target.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Khối lượng
$3,482Ngày kết thúc
Oct 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 11, 2026, 11:29 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent August 2026 core CPI data at 2.4% year-over-year, down from 2.5% in July, combined with the Cleveland Fed nowcast near 2.39% for September, has concentrated trader-implied probabilities on the 2.3–2.5% range. Persistent shelter and services inflation continue to offset cooling goods prices, while steady labor-market conditions and moderating wage growth limit downside risks. The distribution reflects uncertainty around month-to-month volatility and rounding effects ahead of the mid-October BLS release, with markets pricing in gradual disinflation consistent with the post-2022 trend but still above the Fed’s 2% target.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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