SpaceX's Starship program has completed just one flight reaching space in 2026 so far—Flight 13 in July, which achieved suborbital trajectory and briefly deployed Starlink V3 satellites—setting a cautious pace that underpins the market's tight split between fewer than five total launches (55.5%) and five-to-six (44.5%). Recent upgrades to the heat shield, Raptor engines, and booster relight systems from that mission position Flight 14, now targeted for late September, as the next key step toward the first orbital profile, but ongoing FAA airspace clearances and the shift from suborbital tests continue to limit cadence. With only three months remaining, traders see higher totals as unlikely absent rapid regulatory and operational progress.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó bao nhiêu lần phóng Starship lên vũ trụ vào năm 2026?
Có bao nhiêu lần phóng Starship lên vũ trụ vào năm 2026?
<5 58%
5-6 45%
7-8 2.9%
>16 1.1%
$513,812 KL.
$513,812 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
54%
5-6
45%
7-8
3%
9-10
<1%
11-12
1%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
<5 58%
5-6 45%
7-8 2.9%
>16 1.1%
$513,812 KL.
$513,812 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
$102,844 KL.
54%
5-6
$117,407 KL.
45%
7-8
$161,675 KL.
3%
9-10
$63,399 KL.
<1%
11-12
$10,757 KL.
1%
13-14
$11,020 KL.
<1%
15-16
$32,047 KL.
<1%
>16
$14,663 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's Starship program has completed just one flight reaching space in 2026 so far—Flight 13 in July, which achieved suborbital trajectory and briefly deployed Starlink V3 satellites—setting a cautious pace that underpins the market's tight split between fewer than five total launches (55.5%) and five-to-six (44.5%). Recent upgrades to the heat shield, Raptor engines, and booster relight systems from that mission position Flight 14, now targeted for late September, as the next key step toward the first orbital profile, but ongoing FAA airspace clearances and the shift from suborbital tests continue to limit cadence. With only three months remaining, traders see higher totals as unlikely absent rapid regulatory and operational progress.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Khối lượng
$513,812Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's Starship program has completed just one flight reaching space in 2026 so far—Flight 13 in July, which achieved suborbital trajectory and briefly deployed Starlink V3 satellites—setting a cautious pace that underpins the market's tight split between fewer than five total launches (55.5%) and five-to-six (44.5%). Recent upgrades to the heat shield, Raptor engines, and booster relight systems from that mission position Flight 14, now targeted for late September, as the next key step toward the first orbital profile, but ongoing FAA airspace clearances and the shift from suborbital tests continue to limit cadence. With only three months remaining, traders see higher totals as unlikely absent rapid regulatory and operational progress.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$513,812Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's Starship program has completed just one flight reaching space in 2026 so far—Flight 13 in July, which achieved suborbital trajectory and briefly deployed Starlink V3 satellites—setting a cautious pace that underpins the market's tight split between fewer than five total launches (55.5%) and five-to-six (44.5%). Recent upgrades to the heat shield, Raptor engines, and booster relight systems from that mission position Flight 14, now targeted for late September, as the next key step toward the first orbital profile, but ongoing FAA airspace clearances and the shift from suborbital tests continue to limit cadence. With only three months remaining, traders see higher totals as unlikely absent rapid regulatory and operational progress.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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