No at 76.5% reflects the absence of any catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of releasing 5 kt or more in 2026, according to ongoing NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring. All recent predicted impacts, including 2026 RW1 and similar meter-scale objects detected hours before entry, produced fireballs well below the threshold. Historical bolide records show ≥5 kt airbursts occur roughly once every 1–2 years on average, yet none have registered in the first nine months of 2026. With only three-plus months remaining and no new high-risk detections or revised orbital solutions indicating elevated probability, trader consensus aligns with base-rate expectations of a low-likelihood outcome before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
25% khả năng
$313,828 KL.
$313,828 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
25% khả năng
$313,828 KL.
$313,828 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 76.5% reflects the absence of any catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of releasing 5 kt or more in 2026, according to ongoing NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring. All recent predicted impacts, including 2026 RW1 and similar meter-scale objects detected hours before entry, produced fireballs well below the threshold. Historical bolide records show ≥5 kt airbursts occur roughly once every 1–2 years on average, yet none have registered in the first nine months of 2026. With only three-plus months remaining and no new high-risk detections or revised orbital solutions indicating elevated probability, trader consensus aligns with base-rate expectations of a low-likelihood outcome before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Thị trường mở: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Khối lượng
$313,828Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 76.5% reflects the absence of any catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of releasing 5 kt or more in 2026, according to ongoing NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring. All recent predicted impacts, including 2026 RW1 and similar meter-scale objects detected hours before entry, produced fireballs well below the threshold. Historical bolide records show ≥5 kt airbursts occur roughly once every 1–2 years on average, yet none have registered in the first nine months of 2026. With only three-plus months remaining and no new high-risk detections or revised orbital solutions indicating elevated probability, trader consensus aligns with base-rate expectations of a low-likelihood outcome before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Khối lượng
$313,828Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...No at 76.5% reflects the absence of any catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of releasing 5 kt or more in 2026, according to ongoing NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring. All recent predicted impacts, including 2026 RW1 and similar meter-scale objects detected hours before entry, produced fireballs well below the threshold. Historical bolide records show ≥5 kt airbursts occur roughly once every 1–2 years on average, yet none have registered in the first nine months of 2026. With only three-plus months remaining and no new high-risk detections or revised orbital solutions indicating elevated probability, trader consensus aligns with base-rate expectations of a low-likelihood outcome before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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