NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and ESA monitoring systems have identified no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton or greater airburst through the end of 2026, underpinning the market’s 96.4% implied probability for “No.” Objects in the roughly 10–20 meter diameter range that could yield this energy release remain statistically rare, with historical bolide data from the NASA JPL Fireball repository showing such events occur on timescales of decades rather than annually. The 2013 Chelyabinsk event, estimated near 440 kilotons, stands as the largest in over a century. While undetected smaller bodies could still produce an airburst before December 31, ongoing surveys and the year’s advanced stage leave only modest residual uncertainty in trader consensus.