SpaceX’s sustained Falcon 9 cadence, supported by rapid booster reuse and a heavy Starlink manifest, underpins trader consensus around 140–159 total orbital launches for 2026. Through early September the company had already surpassed 100 Falcon 9 missions, with leadership previously projecting 140–145 Falcon flights plus a modest number of Starship missions. Starship Flight 13’s July success with 20 operational Starlink V3 satellites and the imminent Flight 14 test mark the shift toward revenue-generating flights, yet the vehicle remains in low-cadence testing rather than weekly operations. An FAA-imposed annual authorization limit near 195 launches caps upside scenarios, while any acceleration in Starship reuse or delays in Falcon retirement could still shift the distribution within the favored range before year-end.