Recent strength in September core CPI, which accelerated to 0.3% month-over-month amid broad-based gains in services, supercore, and goods prices, has lifted trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s preferred Core PCE measure. Economists trimmed initial forecasts from 0.36% to around 0.32% after softer PCE-relevant components in PPI data, positioning the 0.3% outcome as the modal print at 63.5% implied probability while 0.4% holds secondary support at 33%. Market-implied odds reflect aggregated positioning ahead of the October 29 BEA release, with underlying inflation metrics remaining elevated relative to the Fed’s 2% target and recent August Core PCE of 0.25%.