Rui Costa (PT) holds an 80% implied probability of finishing first in Bahia's Senate election due to consistent leads in recent voter intention surveys. A Real Time Big Data poll conducted September 4–8, 2026, among 1,600 respondents showed him at 26% in consolidated first- and second-choice votes, well ahead of Jaques Wagner (PT) at 19%, João Roma (PL) at 17%, and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) at 15%, with the latter three statistically tied for the second seat within the 2-point margin of error. Costa's stronger performance on first-choice ballots (39%) reflects his visibility as former Casa Civil minister and alignment with the state's governing PT coalition. The election for the two seats occurs October 4, 2026, with traders pricing limited near-term shifts absent major new polling or campaign events.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtRui Costa 80%
Jaques Wagner 12.3%
João Roma 3.3%
Angelo Coronel 2.9%
$28,682 KL.
$28,682 KL.
Oct 4, 2026
Rui Costa
80%
Jaques Wagner
12%
João Roma
3%
Angelo Coronel
3%
Professora Delliana
<1%
Carlos Sodré
<1%
Gregorio Gould
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
<1%
Marcelo Millet
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
<1%
Rui Costa 80%
Jaques Wagner 12.3%
João Roma 3.3%
Angelo Coronel 2.9%
$28,682 KL.
$28,682 KL.
Oct 4, 2026
Rui Costa
$13,553 KL.
80%
Jaques Wagner
$6,008 KL.
12%
João Roma
$2,802 KL.
3%
Angelo Coronel
$1,835 KL.
3%
Professora Delliana
$667 KL.
<1%
Carlos Sodré
$800 KL.
<1%
Gregorio Gould
$691 KL.
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
$741 KL.
<1%
Marcelo Millet
$810 KL.
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
$775 KL.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa (PT) holds an 80% implied probability of finishing first in Bahia's Senate election due to consistent leads in recent voter intention surveys. A Real Time Big Data poll conducted September 4–8, 2026, among 1,600 respondents showed him at 26% in consolidated first- and second-choice votes, well ahead of Jaques Wagner (PT) at 19%, João Roma (PL) at 17%, and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) at 15%, with the latter three statistically tied for the second seat within the 2-point margin of error. Costa's stronger performance on first-choice ballots (39%) reflects his visibility as former Casa Civil minister and alignment with the state's governing PT coalition. The election for the two seats occurs October 4, 2026, with traders pricing limited near-term shifts absent major new polling or campaign events.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Thị trường mở: Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
Khối lượng
$28,682Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa (PT) holds an 80% implied probability of finishing first in Bahia's Senate election due to consistent leads in recent voter intention surveys. A Real Time Big Data poll conducted September 4–8, 2026, among 1,600 respondents showed him at 26% in consolidated first- and second-choice votes, well ahead of Jaques Wagner (PT) at 19%, João Roma (PL) at 17%, and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) at 15%, with the latter three statistically tied for the second seat within the 2-point margin of error. Costa's stronger performance on first-choice ballots (39%) reflects his visibility as former Casa Civil minister and alignment with the state's governing PT coalition. The election for the two seats occurs October 4, 2026, with traders pricing limited near-term shifts absent major new polling or campaign events.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Khối lượng
$28,682Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Rui Costa (PT) holds an 80% implied probability of finishing first in Bahia's Senate election due to consistent leads in recent voter intention surveys. A Real Time Big Data poll conducted September 4–8, 2026, among 1,600 respondents showed him at 26% in consolidated first- and second-choice votes, well ahead of Jaques Wagner (PT) at 19%, João Roma (PL) at 17%, and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) at 15%, with the latter three statistically tied for the second seat within the 2-point margin of error. Costa's stronger performance on first-choice ballots (39%) reflects his visibility as former Casa Civil minister and alignment with the state's governing PT coalition. The election for the two seats occurs October 4, 2026, with traders pricing limited near-term shifts absent major new polling or campaign events.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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