China’s military leadership purges through mid-2026 have weakened PLA command structures and operational readiness for complex amphibious operations, while assessments highlight persistent shortfalls in landing ships, naval gunfire support, and joint logistics needed for a Taiwan invasion. Beijing has instead emphasized coast guard patrols, blockade rehearsals, and air-sea control measures that avoid full-scale conflict. Taiwan continues integrating drone and precision-strike capabilities into its defenses, and U.S. intelligence sees no fixed timeline or current intent for an attack by year-end. Trader consensus at 96.2% for “No” reflects these barriers and the brief window remaining, though an abrupt Taiwan independence declaration or major diplomatic rupture could still trigger escalation.