Recent U.S. envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv produced agreement to resume trilateral talks but yielded no breakthrough on core disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and Ukrainian neutrality. Russia continues to demand full withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas and limits on Ukrainian forces, positions that Kyiv rejects as unacceptable. Ongoing strikes, including recent missile barrages on the capital, alongside battlefield advances underscore the absence of de-escalation sufficient for a signed agreement. With only weeks until October 31, trader consensus at 95.7% on "No" aligns with the timeline and persistent gaps. Late diplomatic concessions or external pressure ahead of U.S. midterms could theoretically shift momentum, though historical patterns show such rapid resolutions remain rare.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено4% шанс
$10,649 Обс.
$10,649 Обс.
Oct 31, 2026
4% шанс
$10,649 Обс.
$10,649 Обс.
Oct 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent U.S. envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv produced agreement to resume trilateral talks but yielded no breakthrough on core disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and Ukrainian neutrality. Russia continues to demand full withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas and limits on Ukrainian forces, positions that Kyiv rejects as unacceptable. Ongoing strikes, including recent missile barrages on the capital, alongside battlefield advances underscore the absence of de-escalation sufficient for a signed agreement. With only weeks until October 31, trader consensus at 95.7% on "No" aligns with the timeline and persistent gaps. Late diplomatic concessions or external pressure ahead of U.S. midterms could theoretically shift momentum, though historical patterns show such rapid resolutions remain rare.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$10,649Дата завершення
Nov 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent U.S. envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv produced agreement to resume trilateral talks but yielded no breakthrough on core disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and Ukrainian neutrality. Russia continues to demand full withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas and limits on Ukrainian forces, positions that Kyiv rejects as unacceptable. Ongoing strikes, including recent missile barrages on the capital, alongside battlefield advances underscore the absence of de-escalation sufficient for a signed agreement. With only weeks until October 31, trader consensus at 95.7% on "No" aligns with the timeline and persistent gaps. Late diplomatic concessions or external pressure ahead of U.S. midterms could theoretically shift momentum, though historical patterns show such rapid resolutions remain rare.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$10,649Дата завершення
Nov 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv produced agreement to resume trilateral talks but yielded no breakthrough on core disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and Ukrainian neutrality. Russia continues to demand full withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas and limits on Ukrainian forces, positions that Kyiv rejects as unacceptable. Ongoing strikes, including recent missile barrages on the capital, alongside battlefield advances underscore the absence of de-escalation sufficient for a signed agreement. With only weeks until October 31, trader consensus at 95.7% on "No" aligns with the timeline and persistent gaps. Late diplomatic concessions or external pressure ahead of U.S. midterms could theoretically shift momentum, though historical patterns show such rapid resolutions remain rare.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання