NATO allies have not faced a direct armed attack on member territory since the 9/11 invocations of Article 5, and recent hybrid incidents—including Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace and sabotage attributed to Moscow—have remained below the collective-defense threshold. The July 2026 Ankara summit produced a unified declaration reaffirming the “ironclad” commitment that an attack on one is an attack on all, even amid U.S. force adjustments in Europe. Intelligence assessments point to possible limited Russian probes aimed at testing alliance resolve between late 2026 and 2029, yet no preparations for imminent conventional strikes have been confirmed. With only months remaining before 2027, the absence of qualifying armed aggression sustains trader consensus that invocation is unlikely.